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Nuggets at Kings

NBA · Thursday, Dec 11 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final DEN 136 – SAC 105
← NBA / Dec 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN41363227136
SAC26282724105
Team box
DEN·SAC
52-88
field goals
39-87
12-29
3-pointers
11-38
20-29
free throws
16-23
46
rebounds
38
35
assists
21
12
turnovers
16
66
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN2936128
Peyton WatsonDEN232121
Malik MonkSAC301845
Russell WestbrookSAC271735
Cameron JohnsonDEN331631
Maxime RaynaudSAC371591

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +37
DEN +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 2 · DEN 37lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 67%, SAC 33% · Updated Dec 11, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 6.1
Expected score
DEN 122.0 – 115.9 SAC
Expected total
237.9
NuggetsThe matchupKings
−199Our fair odds+199
122.0Expected points115.9
+0.64Power rating−0.28
125.0Points / game111.4
116.3Allowed / game122.0
51.5FG%46.6
39.73P%35.2
44.8Rebounds / game40.0
17−6Season record6−18
7−3Last 103−7
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Zach LaVine

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · SAC chance
Our model fair66.5%33.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−19967%————
SACSacramento Kings+19933%————
SpreadDEN by 6.1
DENDenver Nuggets−6.1our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.9
Over237.9our total————
Under237.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 6.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%
← DEN wins bySAC wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more57%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more41%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

237.9 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.569%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24737%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·SAC
Dec 7, 2025 at CHA
last game
Dec 8, 2025 at IND
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 11, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACZach LaVine · right thumb; sorenessOut
SACDennis Schroder · right hip flexor; strainDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
DEN·SAC
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
125.0
points / game
111.4
116.3
points allowed / game
122.0
17−6
season record
6−18
6−4
home record
3−7
11−2
away record
3−11
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
51.5
FG%
46.6
39.7
3P%
35.2
44.8
rebounds / game
40.0
29.4
assists / game
25.8
13.5
turnovers / game
14.0
52.9
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

DEN · SAC · 44 days
Denver NuggetsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 3−7
Nov 22, 2025at DENSAC 128 − 123
Nov 11, 2025at SACDEN 122 − 108
Nov 3, 2025at DENDEN 130 − 124
Apr 9, 2025at SACDEN 124 − 116
Mar 5, 2025at DENDEN 116 − 110
Jan 23, 2025at DENDEN 132 − 123
Dec 16, 2024at SACDEN 130 − 129
Feb 28, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 96
Feb 14, 2024at DENSAC 102 − 98
Feb 9, 2024at SACSAC 135 − 106

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 8, 2025at IND105 − 116L
Dec 6, 2025at MIA127 − 111W
Dec 3, 2025at HOU95 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs MEM107 − 115L
Nov 28, 2025at UTAH119 − 128L
Nov 26, 2025vs PHX100 − 112L
Nov 24, 2025vs MIN117 − 112W
Nov 22, 2025at DEN128 − 123W
Nov 20, 2025at MEM96 − 137L
Nov 19, 2025at OKC99 − 113L