bayesRatings

Rockets at Nuggets

NBA · Saturday, Dec 20 · 4:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final HOU 115 – DEN 101
← NBA / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU26272933115
DEN29162135101
Team box
HOU·DEN
39-77
field goals
37-92
19-35
3-pointers
8-29
18-23
free throws
19-23
47
rebounds
39
24
assists
21
19
turnovers
11
34
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU403165
Reed SheppardHOU302826
Nikola JokicDEN292575
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3822102
Jamal MurrayDEN351647
Amen ThompsonHOU381646

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +21
HOU +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 5 · HOU 21lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 44%, DEN 56% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 2.3
Expected score
DEN 118.0 – 115.7 HOU
Expected total
233.7
RocketsThe matchupNuggets
+129Our fair odds−129
115.7Expected points118.0
+0.63Power rating+0.67
121.1Points / game125.6
112.1Allowed / game116.2
48.9FG%51.9
40.13P%40.0
49.1Rebounds / game44.4
16−8Season record20−6
6−4Last 108−2
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Tari EasonOutAaron Gordon · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Peyton Watson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · DEN chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+12944%————
DENDenver Nuggets−12956%————
SpreadDEN by 2.3
HOUHouston Rockets+2.3our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 2.3 expected
Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%
← HOU wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more47%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more32%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Denver Nuggets
GTim Hardaway Jr.started
GJamal Murraystarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·DEN
Dec 18, 2025 at NO
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 20, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUTari Eason · left lower leg; injury managementOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENPeyton Watson · right trunk; contusionOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
HOU·DEN
+0.63
rating (0 = average)
+0.67
121.1
points / game
125.6
112.1
points allowed / game
116.2
16−8
season record
20−6
8−2
home record
8−4
8−6
away record
12−2
L2
streak
W6
6−4
last 10
8−2
48.9
FG%
51.9
40.1
3P%
40.0
49.1
rebounds / game
44.4
25.7
assists / game
29.5
16.3
turnovers / game
13.4
55.3
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

HOU · DEN · 53 days
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 5−5
Dec 15, 2025at DENDEN 128 − 125
Nov 21, 2025at HOUDEN 112 − 109
Apr 13, 2025at HOUDEN 126 − 111
Mar 23, 2025at HOUDEN 116 − 111
Jan 15, 2025at DENHOU 128 − 108
Dec 8, 2023at DENHOU 114 − 106
Nov 29, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 124
Nov 24, 2023at HOUHOU 105 − 86
Nov 12, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 104
Apr 4, 2023at HOUHOU 124 − 103

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W