bayesRatings

Rockets at Pelicans

NBA · Thursday, Dec 18 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final HOU 128 – NO 133
← NBA / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
HOU333432209128
NO2421383614133
Team box
HOU·NO
50-107
field goals
49-97
10-32
3-pointers
11-27
18-27
free throws
24-28
58
rebounds
41
30
assists
27
20
turnovers
12
66
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU433272
Saddiq BeyNO342991
Alperen SengunHOU3628118
Trey Murphy IIINO382732
Amen ThompsonHOU412364
Herbert JonesNO381833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +25
HOU +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: NO 6 · HOU 25lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 77%, NO 23% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 11.1
Expected score
HOU 121.0 – 109.9 NO
Expected total
230.8
RocketsThe matchupPelicans
−334Our fair odds+334
121.0Expected points109.9
+0.63Power rating−0.82
120.8Points / game114.2
111.2Allowed / game122.8
49.0FG%46.0
40.53P%34.4
48.7Rebounds / game42.9
16−7Season record5−22
6−4Last 103−7
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleetOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · NO chance
Our model fair77.0%23.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−33477%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+33423%————
SpreadHOU by 11.1
HOUHouston Rockets−11.1our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+11.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.8
Over230.8our total————
Under230.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 11.1 expected
Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 4%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 4%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← HOU wins byNO wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more71%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more55%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.8 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·NO
Dec 15, 2025 at DEN
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at CHI
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 17, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
HOU·NO
+0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
120.8
points / game
114.2
111.2
points allowed / game
122.8
16−7
season record
5−22
8−2
home record
3−12
8−5
away record
2−10
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
3−7
49.0
FG%
46.0
40.5
3P%
34.4
48.7
rebounds / game
42.9
25.5
assists / game
24.7
16.1
turnovers / game
14.6
54.9
points in paint / game
57.0

Rating Trend

HOU · NO · 51 days
Houston RocketsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Mar 8, 2025at HOUHOU 146 − 117
Mar 6, 2025at NOHOU 109 − 97
Dec 26, 2024at NOHOU 128 − 111
Dec 19, 2024at HOUHOU 133 − 113
Feb 22, 2024at NONO 127 − 105
Jan 31, 2024at HOUNO 110 − 99
Dec 23, 2023at NOHOU 106 − 104
Nov 10, 2023at HOUHOU 104 − 101
Mar 19, 2023at HOUNO 117 − 107
Mar 17, 2023at HOUHOU 114 − 112

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W
Nov 21, 2025vs DEN109 − 112L

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN116 − 125L
Dec 2, 2025vs MIN142 − 149L
Nov 30, 2025at LAL121 − 133L
Nov 29, 2025at GS96 − 104L
Nov 26, 2025vs MEM128 − 133L
Nov 24, 2025vs CHI143 − 130W