bayesRatings

Clippers at Rockets

NBA · Thursday, Dec 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final LAC 113 – HOU 115
← NBA / Dec 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC29252831113
HOU29222935115
Team box
LAC·HOU
39-78
field goals
43-93
14-38
3-pointers
12-34
21-26
free throws
17-21
28
rebounds
51
25
assists
26
15
turnovers
19
46
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ivica ZubacLAC353371
Kawhi LeonardLAC412494
Alperen SengunHOU3622155
James HardenLAC402237
Amen ThompsonHOU412098
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3718104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +9
LAC +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 9 · LAC 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 31%, HOU 69% · Updated Dec 11, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 7.6
Expected score
HOU 114.6 – 107.0 LAC
Expected total
221.7
ClippersThe matchupRockets
+227Our fair odds−227
107.0Expected points114.6
+0.06Power rating+0.66
111.6Points / game120.9
116.8Allowed / game110.3
46.9FG%49.0
35.03P%40.4
41.2Rebounds / game48.8
6−18Season record15−6
2−8Last 107−3
Bradley Beal · Chris Paul
Derrick Jones Jr. · RayJ DennisOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Tari Eason

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair30.6%69.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers+22731%————
HOUHouston Rockets−22769%————
SpreadHOU by 7.6
LACLA Clippers+7.6our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.7
Over221.7our total————
Under221.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 7.6 expected
LA Clippers by 50 points: <1%LA Clippers by 49 points: <1%LA Clippers by 48 points: <1%LA Clippers by 47 points: <1%LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 24 points: <1%LA Clippers by 23 points: <1%LA Clippers by 22 points: <1%LA Clippers by 21 points: <1%LA Clippers by 20 points: <1%LA Clippers by 19 points: <1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 13 points: 1%LA Clippers by 12 points: 1%LA Clippers by 11 points: 1%LA Clippers by 10 points: 1%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%
← LAC wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more60%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more45%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.7 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.570%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
CIvica Zubacstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·HOU
Dec 6, 2025 at MIN
last game
Dec 6, 2025 at DAL
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 11, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACChris Paul · not with teamOut
LACDerrick Jones Jr. · right knee; sprainOut
LACRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
LAC·HOU
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
111.6
points / game
120.9
116.8
points allowed / game
110.3
6−18
season record
15−6
3−7
home record
7−2
3−11
away record
8−4
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
46.9
FG%
49.0
35.0
3P%
40.4
41.2
rebounds / game
48.8
23.6
assists / game
25.3
15.5
turnovers / game
16.0
48.1
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

LAC · HOU · 44 days
LA ClippersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Apr 9, 2025at LACLAC 134 − 117
Dec 8, 2024at LACHOU 117 − 106
Nov 15, 2024at HOUHOU 125 − 104
Nov 13, 2024at HOUHOU 111 − 103
Apr 14, 2024at LACHOU 116 − 105
Mar 6, 2024at HOULAC 122 − 116
Nov 17, 2023at LACLAC 106 − 100
Jan 15, 2023at LACLAC 121 − 100
Nov 14, 2022at HOULAC 122 − 106
Nov 2, 2022at HOULAC 109 − 101

LAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 6, 2025at MIN106 − 109L
Dec 5, 2025at MEM98 − 107L
Dec 3, 2025at ATL115 − 92W
Dec 1, 2025at MIA123 − 140L
Nov 29, 2025vs DAL110 − 114L
Nov 28, 2025vs MEM107 − 112L
Nov 25, 2025at LAL118 − 135L
Nov 23, 2025at CLE105 − 120L
Nov 22, 2025at CHA131 − 116W
Nov 20, 2025at ORL101 − 129L

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W
Nov 21, 2025vs DEN109 − 112L
Nov 19, 2025at CLE114 − 104W
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W