bayesRatings

Jazz at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Dec 22 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final UTAH 112 – DEN 135
← NBA / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH15313828112
DEN40293432135
Team box
UTAH·DEN
41-96
field goals
46-92
14-41
3-pointers
24-47
16-19
free throws
19-25
49
rebounds
51
30
assists
37
14
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN272765
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH362781
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN252132
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH342087
Cameron JohnsonDEN292024
Peyton WatsonDEN282032

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +29
UTAH +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 29 · UTAH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 17%, DEN 83% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 13.6
Expected score
DEN 129.2 – 115.7 UTAH
Expected total
244.9
JazzThe matchupNuggets
+506Our fair odds−506
115.7Expected points129.2
−0.76Power rating+0.67
119.9Points / game124.7
126.8Allowed / game116.1
45.9FG%51.5
35.03P%39.6
45.7Rebounds / game44.2
10−17Season record20−7
5−5Last 107−3
Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Kevin Love
Oscar TshiebweOut (5 each)Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · DEN chance
Our model fair16.5%83.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+50617%————
DENDenver Nuggets−50683%————
SpreadDEN by 13.6
UTAHUtah Jazz+13.6our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−13.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 244.9
Over244.9our total————
Under244.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 13.6 expected
Utah Jazz by 53 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 52 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 51 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 52 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 53 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more75%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more61%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more46%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

244.9 expected
193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 234.568%
Total over 244.549%
Total over 254.531%
Total from 235 to 25436%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·DEN
Dec 20, 2025 vs ORL
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 22, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHKevin Love · restOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENPeyton Watson · right trunk; contusionQuestionable
DENJonas Valanciunas · illness; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
UTAH·DEN
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
+0.67
119.9
points / game
124.7
126.8
points allowed / game
116.1
10−17
season record
20−7
7−9
home record
8−5
3−8
away record
12−2
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
45.9
FG%
51.5
35.0
3P%
39.6
45.7
rebounds / game
44.2
30.0
assists / game
29.2
16.0
turnovers / game
13.3
49.3
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

UTAH · DEN · 55 days
Utah JazzDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 8−2
Mar 28, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 93
Dec 30, 2024at UTAHDEN 132 − 121
Nov 27, 2024at UTAHDEN 122 − 103
Nov 2, 2024at DENDEN 129 − 103
Apr 9, 2024at UTAHDEN 111 − 95
Mar 9, 2024at DENDEN 142 − 121
Jan 10, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 111
Oct 30, 2023at DENDEN 110 − 102
Apr 8, 2023at UTAHUTAH 118 − 114
Dec 10, 2022at DENDEN 115 − 110

UTAH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 20, 2025vs ORL127 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAL135 − 143L
Dec 15, 2025vs DAL140 − 133W
Dec 12, 2025at MEM130 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 131L
Dec 5, 2025at NY112 − 146L
Dec 4, 2025at BKN123 − 110W
Dec 1, 2025vs HOU133 − 125W
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU101 − 129L
Nov 28, 2025vs SAC128 − 119W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L