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Mavericks at Pelicans

NBA · Monday, Dec 22 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final DAL 113 – NO 119
← NBA / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL34292426113
NO36212240119
Team box
DAL·NO
46-104
field goals
44-97
10-33
3-pointers
8-34
11-21
free throws
23-27
57
rebounds
51
29
assists
28
17
turnovers
13
66
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony DavisDAL3535172
Zion WilliamsonNO252493
Klay ThompsonDAL312051
Derik QueenNO3419106
Saddiq BeyNO351971
Cooper FlaggDAL351666

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +11
DAL +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 11 · DAL 11lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 60%, NO 40% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 4.6
Expected score
DAL 118.5 – 113.9 NO
Expected total
232.4
MavericksThe matchupPelicans
−149Our fair odds+149
118.5Expected points113.9
−0.19Power rating−0.82
113.0Points / game115.3
116.9Allowed / game122.5
46.3FG%46.4
33.03P%34.6
44.4Rebounds / game43.1
11−18Season record7−22
6−4Last 104−6
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOut (3 each)Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · NO chance
Our model fair59.9%40.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks−14960%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+14940%————
SpreadDAL by 4.6
DALDallas Mavericks−4.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.4
Over232.4our total————
Under232.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 4.6 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%
← DAL wins byNO wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more53%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more37%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.4 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·NO
Dec 20, 2025 at PHI
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 22, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALCooper Flagg · back; contusionQuestionable
DALMax Christie · illness; illnessQuestionable
DALKlay Thompson · left knee; sorenessProbable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayProbable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
DAL·NO
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
113.0
points / game
115.3
116.9
points allowed / game
122.5
11−18
season record
7−22
8−9
home record
5−12
3−9
away record
2−10
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
4−6
46.3
FG%
46.4
33.0
3P%
34.6
44.4
rebounds / game
43.1
24.9
assists / game
24.8
15.6
turnovers / game
14.6
51.4
points in paint / game
57.7

Rating Trend

DAL · NO · 55 days
Dallas MavericksNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 4−6
Nov 21, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 115
Nov 5, 2025at DALNO 101 − 99
Feb 21, 2025at DALDAL 111 − 103
Jan 29, 2025at NODAL 137 − 136
Jan 15, 2025at NONO 119 − 116
Nov 19, 2024at DALDAL 132 − 91
Jan 15, 2024at DALDAL 125 − 120
Jan 13, 2024at DALNO 118 − 108
Nov 14, 2023at NONO 131 − 110
Nov 12, 2023at NODAL 136 − 124

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W
Dec 5, 2025at OKC111 − 132L
Dec 3, 2025vs MIA118 − 108W
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W
Nov 28, 2025at LAL119 − 129L

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak W4
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN116 − 125L
Dec 2, 2025vs MIN142 − 149L
Nov 30, 2025at LAL121 − 133L
Nov 29, 2025at GS96 − 104L