bayesRatings

Pacers at Pelicans

NBA · Saturday, Dec 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final IND 109 – NO 128
← NBA / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND27223030109
NO44203430128
Team box
IND·NO
40-94
field goals
45-85
8-42
3-pointers
9-27
21-30
free throws
29-34
42
rebounds
49
28
assists
25
14
turnovers
18
60
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO232971
Pascal SiakamIND312253
Saddiq BeyNO281853
Johnny FurphyIND231820
Derik QueenNO2717104
Trey Murphy IIINO331764

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +25
IND +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 25 · IND 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 63%, NO 37% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 5.6
Expected score
IND 119.6 – 114.0 NO
Expected total
233.7
PacersThe matchupPelicans
−172Our fair odds+172
119.6Expected points114.0
−0.04Power rating−0.82
110.3Points / game114.9
118.1Allowed / game123.0
43.3FG%46.1
33.03P%34.6
44.2Rebounds / game42.9
6−21Season record6−22
4−6Last 103−7
Aaron Nesmith · Ben Sheppard
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Taelon PeterOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · NO chance
Our model fair63.2%36.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−17263%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+17237%————
SpreadIND by 5.6
INDIndiana Pacers−5.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 5.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%
← IND wins byNO wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more56%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more40%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·NO
Dec 18, 2025 vs NY
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 20, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee; mcl sprainOut
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDKam Jones · torn g league - on assignmentOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon;Out
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
IND·NO
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
110.3
points / game
114.9
118.1
points allowed / game
123.0
6−21
season record
6−22
5−10
home record
4−12
1−11
away record
2−10
L3
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
3−7
43.3
FG%
46.1
33.0
3P%
34.6
44.2
rebounds / game
42.9
23.4
assists / game
24.8
13.9
turnovers / game
14.5
44.6
points in paint / game
57.3

Rating Trend

IND · NO · 53 days
Indiana PacersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 4−5
Dec 15, 2024at INDIND 119 − 104
Nov 25, 2024at INDIND 114 − 110
Nov 1, 2024at NONO 125 − 118
Mar 1, 2024at NONO 129 − 102
Feb 28, 2024at INDIND 123 − 114
Dec 26, 2022at NONO 113 − 93
Nov 7, 2022at INDIND 129 − 122
Jan 24, 2022at NONO 117 − 113
Nov 20, 2021at INDIND 111 − 94

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L
Dec 12, 2025at PHI105 − 115L
Dec 8, 2025vs SAC116 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W
Nov 28, 2025vs WSH119 − 86W
Nov 26, 2025at TOR95 − 97L

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN116 − 125L
Dec 2, 2025vs MIN142 − 149L
Nov 30, 2025at LAL121 − 133L
Nov 29, 2025at GS96 − 104L
Nov 26, 2025vs MEM128 − 133L