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Trail Blazers at Thunder

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final POR 95 – OKC 124
← NBA / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR3025211995
OKC38352625124
Team box
POR·OKC
34-87
field goals
44-90
14-35
3-pointers
16-49
13-17
free throws
20-26
50
rebounds
41
20
assists
29
25
turnovers
15
34
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC293026
Sidy CissokoPOR271912
Deni AvdijaPOR321777
Ajay MitchellOKC231763
Isaiah JoeOKC191511
Shaedon SharpePOR281441

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +31
POR +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 31 · POR 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 14%, OKC 86% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 17.3
Expected score
OKC 122.7 – 105.3 POR
Expected total
228.0
Trail BlazersThe matchupThunder
+596Our fair odds−596
105.3Expected points122.7
−0.24Power rating+1.34
116.8Points / game122.1
120.1Allowed / game107.9
44.9FG%49.6
33.53P%37.1
45.3Rebounds / game44.5
14−19Season record28−5
5−5Last 106−4
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant · Jrue Holiday
Matisse ThybulleOut (5 each)Brooks Barnhizer · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jaylin Williams · Nikola Topic
Ousmane Dieng

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · OKC chance
Our model fair14.4%85.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+59614%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−59686%————
SpreadOKC by 17.3
PORPortland Trail Blazers+17.3our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 17.3 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 53 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 52 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 51 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 50 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← POR wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more83%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more72%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more57%
Within 5 points either way13%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·OKC
Dec 29, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 31, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORKris Murray · right quad; contusionQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
POR·OKC
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
116.8
points / game
122.1
120.1
points allowed / game
107.9
14−19
season record
28−5
7−9
home record
16−2
7−10
away record
12−3
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
44.9
FG%
49.6
33.5
3P%
37.1
45.3
rebounds / game
44.5
24.7
assists / game
25.8
17.2
turnovers / game
12.6
49.1
points in paint / game
53.1

Rating Trend

POR · OKC · 63 days
Portland Trail BlazersOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 9−1
Nov 30, 2025at POROKC 123 − 115
Nov 23, 2025at OKCOKC 122 − 95
Nov 5, 2025at PORPOR 121 − 119
Mar 7, 2025at OKCOKC 107 − 89
Jan 26, 2025at POROKC 118 − 108
Nov 20, 2024at OKCOKC 109 − 99
Nov 1, 2024at POROKC 137 − 114
Mar 6, 2024at POROKC 128 − 120
Jan 23, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 109
Jan 11, 2024at OKCOKC 139 − 77

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025vs ORL106 − 110L
Dec 22, 2025vs DET102 − 110L
Dec 20, 2025at SAC98 − 93W
Dec 18, 2025vs SAC134 − 133W
Dec 14, 2025vs GS136 − 131W
Dec 11, 2025at NO120 − 143L
Dec 7, 2025at MEM96 − 119L

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W
Dec 7, 2025at UTAH131 − 101W