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Mavericks at Trail Blazers

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 9:30 PM CT · Moda Center · Final DAL 122 – POR 125
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL29343029122
POR42332228125
Team box
DAL·POR
46-91
field goals
46-97
11-32
3-pointers
16-41
19-24
free throws
17-22
41
rebounds
48
33
assists
27
12
turnovers
16
62
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Deni AvdijaPOR3927911
Max ChristieDAL292535
Shaedon SharpePOR332455
Caleb LovePOR342432
Brandon WilliamsDAL302234
Donovan ClinganPOR2918111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 17 · DAL 4lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 45%, POR 55% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
POR by 0.8
Expected score
POR 115.9 – 115.0 DAL
Expected total
230.9
MavericksThe matchupTrail Blazers
+120Our fair odds−120
115.0Expected points115.9
−0.20Power rating−0.25
113.5Points / game116.6
117.5Allowed / game120.1
46.8FG%44.8
33.53P%33.4
44.6Rebounds / game45.2
12−21Season record13−19
4−6Last 104−6
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant · Jrue Holiday
Matisse Thybulle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · POR chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+12045%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−12055%————
SpreadPOR by 0.8
DALDallas Mavericks+0.8our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.9
Over230.9our total————
Under230.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 0.8 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%
← DAL wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more43%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more29%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.9 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.531%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·POR
Dec 27, 2025 at SAC
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALAnthony Davis · right adductor; sorenessQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALBrandon Williams · left calf; contusionProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORKris Murray · right quad; contusionQuestionable
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
DAL·POR
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
113.5
points / game
116.6
117.5
points allowed / game
120.1
12−21
season record
13−19
9−9
home record
6−9
3−12
away record
7−10
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
46.8
FG%
44.8
33.5
3P%
33.4
44.6
rebounds / game
45.2
25.0
assists / game
24.7
15.5
turnovers / game
17.3
52.7
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

DAL · POR · 61 days
Dallas MavericksPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 2−8
Nov 16, 2025at DALDAL 138 − 133
Jan 9, 2025at DALDAL 117 − 111
Dec 28, 2024at PORPOR 126 − 122
Dec 23, 2024at DALDAL 132 − 108
Dec 1, 2024at PORDAL 137 − 131
Jan 5, 2024at DALDAL 139 − 103
Jan 3, 2024at DALDAL 126 − 97
Dec 16, 2023at PORDAL 131 − 120
Dec 8, 2023at PORDAL 125 − 112
Jan 15, 2023at PORPOR 140 − 123

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 27, 2025at SAC107 − 113L
Dec 25, 2025at GS116 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs DEN131 − 130W
Dec 22, 2025at NO113 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W
Dec 5, 2025at OKC111 − 132L

POR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025vs ORL106 − 110L
Dec 22, 2025vs DET102 − 110L
Dec 20, 2025at SAC98 − 93W
Dec 18, 2025vs SAC134 − 133W
Dec 14, 2025vs GS136 − 131W
Dec 11, 2025at NO120 − 143L
Dec 7, 2025at MEM96 − 119L
Dec 5, 2025at DET116 − 122L