bayesRatings

Warriors at Hornets

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 12:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final GS 132 – CHA 125
← NBA / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS30392934132
CHA30343625125
Team box
GS·CHA
46-83
field goals
48-93
24-49
3-pointers
16-40
16-17
free throws
13-17
37
rebounds
37
35
assists
35
19
turnovers
15
32
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA363322
LaMelo BallCHA302755
Stephen CurryGS332624
Kon KnueppelCHA322058
Jimmy Butler IIIGS311957
Brandin PodziemskiGS231933

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +15
GS +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 7 · GS 15lead changes: 27

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 70%, CHA 30% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 7.3
Expected score
GS 115.2 – 107.9 CHA
Expected total
223.1
WarriorsThe matchupHornets
−230Our fair odds+230
115.2Expected points107.9
+0.28Power rating−0.79
115.1Points / game115.5
113.1Allowed / game118.5
45.4FG%45.5
35.93P%36.4
43.8Rebounds / game44.7
17−16Season record11−21
6−4Last 105−5
LJ Cryer · Malevy Leons
Seth CurryOutGrant Williams · Mason Plumlee
Miles Bridges · Ryan Kalkbrenner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · CHA chance
Our model fair69.7%30.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−23070%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+23030%————
SpreadGS by 7.3
GSGolden State Warriors−7.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.1
Over223.1our total————
Under223.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 7.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%
← GS wins byCHA wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more61%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more44%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.1 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·CHA
Dec 29, 2025 at BKN
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 31, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; strainOut
CHAMiles Bridges · right ankle; sprainOut
CHARyan Kalkbrenner · left elbow; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
GS·CHA
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.79
115.1
points / game
115.5
113.1
points allowed / game
118.5
17−16
season record
11−21
10−4
home record
7−9
7−12
away record
4−12
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
45.4
FG%
45.5
35.9
3P%
36.4
43.8
rebounds / game
44.7
27.8
assists / game
26.2
16.1
turnovers / game
15.8
42.8
points in paint / game
48.1

Rating Trend

GS · CHA · 63 days
Golden State WarriorsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 2−6
Mar 3, 2025at CHAGS 119 − 101
Feb 25, 2025at GSGS 128 − 92
Mar 29, 2024at CHAGS 115 − 97
Feb 23, 2024at GSGS 97 − 84
Dec 27, 2022at GSGS 110 − 105
Oct 29, 2022at CHACHA 120 − 113
Nov 14, 2021at CHACHA 106 − 102
Nov 3, 2021at GSGS 114 − 92

GS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W

CHA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 29, 2025vs MIL113 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025at ORL120 − 105W
Dec 23, 2025vs WSH126 − 109W
Dec 22, 2025at CLE132 − 139L
Dec 20, 2025at DET86 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs ATL133 − 126W
Dec 14, 2025at CLE119 − 111W
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI126 − 129L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN106 − 115L
Dec 5, 2025at TOR111 − 86W