bayesRatings

Warriors at Raptors

NBA · Sunday, Dec 28 · 2:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final GS 127 – TOR 141
← NBA / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
GS293536225127
TOR3332312619141
Team box
GS·TOR
43-96
field goals
56-110
16-44
3-pointers
13-42
25-28
free throws
16-18
42
rebounds
55
25
assists
40
21
turnovers
15
40
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS413934
Immanuel QuickleyTOR382747
Brandon IngramTOR392646
Scottie BarnesTOR42232510
Draymond GreenGS332147
Jimmy Butler IIIGS381965

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +14
GS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: TOR 14 · GS 13lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 57%, TOR 43% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 2.1
Expected score
GS 111.6 – 109.5 TOR
Expected total
221.1
WarriorsThe matchupRaptors
−135Our fair odds+135
111.6Expected points109.5
+0.29Power rating−0.25
114.5Points / game113.5
112.4Allowed / game112.5
45.2FG%47.8
36.13P%35.9
44.0Rebounds / game42.2
16−15Season record18−14
5−5Last 103−7
De'Anthony Melton · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons · Seth CurryOutA.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Collin Murray-Boyles
Jakob Poeltl

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · TOR chance
Our model fair57.5%42.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−13557%————
TORToronto Raptors+13543%————
SpreadGS by 2.1
GSGolden State Warriors−2.1our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.1
Over221.1our total————
Under221.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.1 expected
Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%
← GS wins byTOR wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more46%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more31%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GOchai Agbajistarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·TOR
Dec 25, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 26, 2025 at WSH
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 28, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · illness; illnessOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
GS·TOR
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
114.5
points / game
113.5
112.4
points allowed / game
112.5
16−15
season record
18−14
10−4
home record
8−7
6−11
away record
10−7
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
45.2
FG%
47.8
36.1
3P%
35.9
44.0
rebounds / game
42.2
28.0
assists / game
29.3
16.0
turnovers / game
14.8
42.5
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

GS · TOR · 60 days
Golden State WarriorsToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TOR 3−5
Mar 20, 2025at GSGS 117 − 114
Jan 13, 2025at TORTOR 104 − 101
Mar 1, 2024at TORGS 120 − 105
Jan 7, 2024at GSTOR 133 − 118
Jan 27, 2023at GSGS 129 − 117
Dec 18, 2022at TORGS 126 − 110
Dec 18, 2021at TORTOR 119 − 100
Nov 21, 2021at GSGS 119 − 104

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L
Dec 23, 2025at MIA112 − 91W
Dec 21, 2025at BKN81 − 96L
Dec 20, 2025vs BOS96 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025at MIL111 − 105W
Dec 15, 2025at MIA106 − 96W
Dec 9, 2025vs NY101 − 117L
Dec 7, 2025vs BOS113 − 121L
Dec 5, 2025vs CHA86 − 111L
Dec 4, 2025vs LAL120 − 123L