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Raptors at Bucks

NBA · Thursday, Dec 18 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final TOR 111 – MIL 105
← NBA / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR31262628111
MIL25282329105
Team box
TOR·MIL
42-84
field goals
38-84
13-35
3-pointers
15-37
14-21
free throws
14-16
45
rebounds
38
31
assists
25
17
turnovers
16
44
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR352983
Scottie BarnesTOR3624112
Bobby PortisMIL3924120
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL4022413
Myles TurnerMIL312162
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR361872

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +11
TOR +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 2 · TOR 11lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 42%, MIL 58% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 2.6
Expected score
MIL 115.3 – 112.8 TOR
Expected total
228.1
RaptorsThe matchupBucks
+140Our fair odds−140
112.8Expected points115.3
−0.20Power rating−0.09
115.4Points / game113.9
113.2Allowed / game117.7
48.5FG%49.2
36.33P%40.5
42.4Rebounds / game39.4
16−11Season record11−16
4−6Last 103−7
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jonathan Mogbo
RJ BarrettOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIL chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+14042%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−14058%————
SpreadMIL by 2.6
TORToronto Raptors+2.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.1
Over228.1our total————
Under228.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 2.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more47%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more33%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GOchai Agbajistarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIL
Dec 15, 2025 at MIA
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at BKN
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 18, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprainOut
TORJakob Poeltl · lower back; injury managementQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILAJ Green · left ac joint; sprainQuestionable
MILCole Anthony · neck; strainQuestionable
MILKyle Kuzma · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
TOR·MIL
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
115.4
points / game
113.9
113.2
points allowed / game
117.7
16−11
season record
11−16
8−6
home record
8−7
8−5
away record
3−9
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
48.5
FG%
49.2
36.3
3P%
40.5
42.4
rebounds / game
39.4
29.6
assists / game
26.8
14.9
turnovers / game
15.0
53.0
points in paint / game
45.8

Rating Trend

TOR · MIL · 51 days
Toronto RaptorsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Nov 4, 2025at TORTOR 128 − 100
Oct 24, 2025at TORMIL 122 − 116
Jan 17, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 112
Jan 6, 2025at TORMIL 128 − 104
Nov 12, 2024at MILMIL 99 − 85
Apr 5, 2024at MILTOR 117 − 111
Nov 15, 2023at TORMIL 128 − 112
Nov 1, 2023at TORTOR 130 − 111
Apr 9, 2023at TORTOR 121 − 105
Mar 19, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 111

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 15, 2025at MIA106 − 96W
Dec 9, 2025vs NY101 − 117L
Dec 7, 2025vs BOS113 − 121L
Dec 5, 2025vs CHA86 − 111L
Dec 4, 2025vs LAL120 − 123L
Dec 2, 2025vs POR121 − 118W
Nov 30, 2025at NY94 − 116L
Nov 29, 2025at CHA111 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025vs IND97 − 95W
Nov 24, 2025vs CLE110 − 99W

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025at MIA103 − 106L
Nov 24, 2025vs POR103 − 115L