bayesRatings

Warriors at Nets

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final GS 120 – BKN 107
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS28313031120
BKN30272822107
Team box
GS·BKN
41-77
field goals
36-80
10-33
3-pointers
18-42
28-34
free throws
17-23
40
rebounds
34
26
assists
22
14
turnovers
15
56
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN362795
Stephen CurryGS292725
Egor DeminBKN322333
Jimmy Butler IIIGS312154
Nic ClaxtonBKN361594
Cam ThomasBKN191302

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +15
GS +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 15 · GS 13lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 68%, BKN 32% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 5.9
Expected score
GS 110.5 – 104.6 BKN
Expected total
215.1
WarriorsThe matchupNets
−216Our fair odds+216
110.5Expected points104.6
+0.29Power rating−0.72
114.9Points / game109.8
113.3Allowed / game113.7
45.2FG%45.1
36.13P%34.5
43.9Rebounds / game40.6
16−16Season record10−19
5−5Last 107−3
Al Horford · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons · Seth CurryOutBen Saraf · Chaney Johnson
E.J. Liddell · Haywood Highsmith
Tyson Etienne

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · BKN chance
Our model fair68.4%31.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−21668%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+21632%————
SpreadGS by 5.9
GSGolden State Warriors−5.9our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 215.1
Over215.1our total————
Under215.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 5.9 expected
Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%
← GS wins byBKN wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more57%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more41%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

215.1 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 205.569%
Total over 215.548%
Total over 225.529%
Total from 206 to 22540%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·BKN
Dec 28, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 27, 2025 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSJimmy Butler III · low back; sorenessProbable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
BKNZiaire Williams · right ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
GS·BKN
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
114.9
points / game
109.8
113.3
points allowed / game
113.7
16−16
season record
10−19
10−4
home record
4−11
6−12
away record
6−8
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
45.2
FG%
45.1
36.1
3P%
34.5
43.9
rebounds / game
40.6
27.9
assists / game
25.9
16.2
turnovers / game
16.0
42.4
points in paint / game
42.5

Rating Trend

GS · BKN · 61 days
Golden State WarriorsBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BKN 3−5
Mar 6, 2025at BKNGS 121 − 119
Nov 25, 2024at GSBKN 128 − 120
Feb 5, 2024at BKNGS 109 − 98
Dec 16, 2023at GSGS 124 − 120
Jan 22, 2023at GSBKN 120 − 116
Dec 21, 2022at BKNBKN 143 − 113
Jan 29, 2022at GSGS 110 − 106
Nov 16, 2021at BKNGS 117 − 99

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L

BKN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 27, 2025at MIN123 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025at PHI114 − 106W
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR96 − 81W
Dec 18, 2025vs MIA95 − 106L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIL127 − 82W
Dec 12, 2025at DAL111 − 119L
Dec 6, 2025vs NO119 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs UTAH110 − 123L
Dec 3, 2025at CHI113 − 103W
Dec 1, 2025vs CHA116 − 103W