bayesRatings

Nets at Timberwolves

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final BKN 123 – MIN 107
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN33293625123
MIN30332321107
Team box
BKN·MIN
46-84
field goals
37-83
11-40
3-pointers
13-31
20-21
free throws
20-28
39
rebounds
34
32
assists
27
16
turnovers
11
66
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cam ThomasBKN203034
Anthony EdwardsMIN352872
Michael Porter Jr.BKN3327104
Jaden McDanielsMIN331634
Nic ClaxtonBKN311463
Julius RandleMIN3413311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +21
BKN +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 7 · BKN 21lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 18%, MIN 82% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 13.6
Expected score
MIN 115.0 – 101.5 BKN
Expected total
216.5
NetsThe matchupTimberwolves
+460Our fair odds−460
101.5Expected points115.0
−0.72Power rating+0.60
109.3Points / game119.1
113.9Allowed / game114.4
44.7FG%47.7
34.73P%36.8
40.6Rebounds / game44.4
9−19Season record20−11
6−4Last 107−3
Ben Saraf · Chaney Johnson
E.J. Liddell · Haywood Highsmith
Tyson EtienneOutTerrence Shannon Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair17.8%82.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+46018%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−46082%————
SpreadMIN by 13.6
BKNBrooklyn Nets+13.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−13.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.5
Over216.5our total————
Under216.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 13.6 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 53 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 52 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 51 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 53 points: <1%
← BKN wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more75%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more61%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more46%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.5 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.569%
Total over 216.549%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·MIN
Dec 23, 2025 at PHI
last game
Dec 25, 2025 at DEN
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · not with teamOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
MINRob Dillingham · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
BKN·MIN
−0.72
rating (0 = average)
+0.60
109.3
points / game
119.1
113.9
points allowed / game
114.4
9−19
season record
20−11
4−11
home record
12−5
5−8
away record
8−6
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
44.7
FG%
47.7
34.7
3P%
36.8
40.6
rebounds / game
44.4
25.7
assists / game
26.5
16.0
turnovers / game
14.6
41.6
points in paint / game
50.2

Rating Trend

BKN · MIN · 59 days
Brooklyn NetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 7−2
Nov 3, 2025at BKNMIN 125 − 109
Apr 11, 2025at MINMIN 117 − 91
Apr 3, 2025at BKNMIN 105 − 90
Feb 24, 2024at MINMIN 101 − 86
Jan 25, 2024at BKNMIN 96 − 94
Apr 4, 2023at BKNMIN 107 − 102
Mar 10, 2023at MINBKN 124 − 123
Jan 23, 2022at MINMIN 136 − 125
Dec 3, 2021at BKNBKN 110 − 105

BKN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 23, 2025at PHI114 − 106W
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR96 − 81W
Dec 18, 2025vs MIA95 − 106L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIL127 − 82W
Dec 12, 2025at DAL111 − 119L
Dec 6, 2025vs NO119 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs UTAH110 − 123L
Dec 3, 2025at CHI113 − 103W
Dec 1, 2025vs CHA116 − 103W
Nov 29, 2025at MIL99 − 116L

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W