bayesRatings

Knicks at Timberwolves

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final NY 104 – MIN 115
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY28242725104
MIN31272730115
Team box
NY·MIN
41-99
field goals
42-93
11-30
3-pointers
15-46
11-15
free throws
16-23
55
rebounds
42
20
assists
25
19
turnovers
11
54
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3540131
Anthony EdwardsMIN373822
Julius RandleMIN332563
Tyler KolekNY3120118
Mikal BridgesNY381530
Josh HartNY4212158

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +17
NY +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 17 · NY 4lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 43%, MIN 57% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 3.4
Expected score
MIN 114.0 – 110.6 NY
Expected total
224.6
KnicksThe matchupTimberwolves
+135Our fair odds−135
110.6Expected points114.0
+0.52Power rating+0.60
120.8Points / game118.6
112.9Allowed / game113.8
48.2FG%47.8
38.13P%37.3
46.4Rebounds / game44.4
21−8Season record19−10
8−2Last 108−2
Guerschon Yabusele · Jalen Brunson
Landry Shamet · Miles McBride
OG AnunobyOutJaden McDaniels · Joe Ingles

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · MIN chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks+13543%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−13557%————
SpreadMIN by 3.4
NYNew York Knicks+3.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.6
Over224.6our total————
Under224.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 3.4 expected
New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: <1%New York Knicks by 27 points: <1%New York Knicks by 26 points: <1%New York Knicks by 25 points: <1%New York Knicks by 24 points: <1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 1%New York Knicks by 15 points: 1%New York Knicks by 14 points: 1%New York Knicks by 13 points: 1%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 2%New York Knicks by 8 points: 2%New York Knicks by 7 points: 2%New York Knicks by 6 points: 2%New York Knicks by 5 points: 2%New York Knicks by 4 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%
← NY wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more50%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more35%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.6 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GTyler Kolekstarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
CMitchell Robinsonstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·MIN
Dec 21, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYGuerschon Yabusele · illness; illnessOut
NYJalen Brunson · right ankle; right ankle injury managementOut
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYMiles McBride · left ankle; sprainOut
NYOG Anunoby · left ankle; sorenessOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINJaden McDaniels · left oblique; contusionOut
MINJoe Ingles · personal reasonsOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
NY·MIN
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.60
120.8
points / game
118.6
112.9
points allowed / game
113.8
21−8
season record
19−10
15−2
home record
11−5
6−6
away record
8−5
W1
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
8−2
48.2
FG%
47.8
38.1
3P%
37.3
46.4
rebounds / game
44.4
27.1
assists / game
26.4
13.4
turnovers / game
14.7
49.1
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

NY · MIN · 56 days
New York KnicksMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 4−5
Nov 5, 2025at NYNY 137 − 114
Jan 17, 2025at NYMIN 116 − 99
Dec 19, 2024at MINNY 133 − 107
Jan 1, 2024at NYNY 112 − 106
Nov 20, 2023at MINMIN 117 − 100
Mar 20, 2023at NYMIN 140 − 134
Nov 7, 2022at MINNY 120 − 107
Jan 18, 2022at NYMIN 112 − 110
Dec 28, 2021at MINNY 96 − 88

NY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs MIA132 − 125W
Dec 19, 2025vs PHI107 − 116L
Dec 18, 2025at IND114 − 113W
Dec 16, 2025vs SA124 − 113W
Dec 13, 2025at ORL132 − 120W
Dec 9, 2025at TOR117 − 101W
Dec 7, 2025vs ORL106 − 100W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH146 − 112W
Dec 3, 2025vs CHA119 − 104W
Dec 2, 2025at BOS117 − 123L

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W
Nov 30, 2025vs SA125 − 112W