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Bucks at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Dec 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final MIL 100 – MIN 103
← NBA / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL29311525100
MIN23252728103
Team box
MIL·MIN
35-87
field goals
37-88
13-45
3-pointers
14-46
17-20
free throws
15-23
51
rebounds
46
27
assists
28
18
turnovers
10
38
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL3724109
Anthony EdwardsMIN372446
Donte DiVincenzoMIN331854
Bobby PortisMIL3916111
Ryan RollinsMIL231645
Myles TurnerMIL381354

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +16
MIL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 8 · MIL 16lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 29%, MIN 71% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 8.3
Expected score
MIN 117.7 – 109.3 MIL
Expected total
227.0
BucksThe matchupTimberwolves
+247Our fair odds−247
109.3Expected points117.7
−0.09Power rating+0.61
113.6Points / game119.2
117.4Allowed / game114.3
49.0FG%48.0
40.53P%37.5
39.3Rebounds / game44.3
11−17Season record18−10
3−7Last 108−2
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean PrinceOut (3 each)Enrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Rocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair28.8%71.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+24729%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−24771%————
SpreadMIN by 8.3
MILMilwaukee Bucks+8.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−8.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.3 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 51 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%
← MIL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more62%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more47%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FBobby Portisstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIN
Dec 18, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Dec 19, 2025 vs OKC
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 20, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
MIL·MIN
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
113.6
points / game
119.2
117.4
points allowed / game
114.3
11−17
season record
18−10
8−8
home record
10−5
3−9
away record
8−5
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
8−2
49.0
FG%
48.0
40.5
3P%
37.5
39.3
rebounds / game
44.3
26.7
assists / game
26.3
15.0
turnovers / game
14.9
45.1
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

MIL · MIN · 54 days
Milwaukee BucksMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIN 3−5
Apr 8, 2025at MILMIL 110 − 103
Feb 12, 2025at MINMIL 103 − 101
Feb 23, 2024at MINMIL 112 − 107
Feb 8, 2024at MILMIN 129 − 105
Dec 30, 2022at MILMIL 123 − 114
Nov 4, 2022at MINMIL 115 − 102
Mar 19, 2022at MINMIN 138 − 119
Oct 27, 2021at MILMIN 113 − 108

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L
Nov 26, 2025at MIA103 − 106L

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W
Nov 30, 2025vs SA125 − 112W
Nov 29, 2025vs BOS119 − 115W