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Timberwolves at Nuggets

NBA · Thursday, Dec 25 · 9:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MIN 138 – DEN 142
← NBA / Dec 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
MIN2926233723138
DEN3225352327142
Team box
MIN·DEN
51-104
field goals
47-101
12-45
3-pointers
19-43
24-30
free throws
29-32
47
rebounds
45
31
assists
31
14
turnovers
17
70
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN43561615
Anthony EdwardsMIN424463
Jamal MurrayDEN4235210
Julius RandleMIN393276
Jaden McDanielsMIN402144
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN411940

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +16
MIN +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DEN 16 · MIN 9lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, DEN 57% · Updated Dec 25, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 2.6
Expected score
DEN 117.5 – 115.0 MIN
Expected total
232.5
TimberwolvesThe matchupNuggets
+133Our fair odds−133
115.0Expected points117.5
+0.60Power rating+0.66
118.5Points / game125.2
113.5Allowed / game116.5
47.7FG%51.6
37.13P%40.3
44.3Rebounds / game44.1
20−10Season record21−8
8−2Last 107−3
—OutAaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DEN chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+13343%————
DENDenver Nuggets−13357%————
SpreadDEN by 2.6
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+2.6our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 2.6 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more47%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more33%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Denver Nuggets
GTim Hardaway Jr.started
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DEN
Dec 23, 2025 vs NY
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 25, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINBones Hyland · n/a; illnessQuestionable
MINJaden McDaniels · left oblique; contusionProbable
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; hyperextension injury managementOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · illness; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
MIN·DEN
+0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
118.5
points / game
125.2
113.5
points allowed / game
116.5
20−10
season record
21−8
12−5
home record
9−5
8−5
away record
12−3
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
47.7
FG%
51.6
37.1
3P%
40.3
44.3
rebounds / game
44.1
26.3
assists / game
29.8
14.6
turnovers / game
13.3
49.5
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

MIN · DEN · 57 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 4−6
Nov 15, 2025at MINDEN 123 − 112
Oct 27, 2025at MINDEN 127 − 114
Apr 1, 2025at DENMIN 140 − 139
Mar 12, 2025at DENMIN 115 − 95
Jan 25, 2025at MINMIN 133 − 104
Nov 1, 2024at MINMIN 119 − 116
May 19, 2024at DENMIN 98 − 90post
May 16, 2024at MINMIN 115 − 70post
May 14, 2024at DENDEN 112 − 97post
May 12, 2024at MINDEN 115 − 107post

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs DAL121 − 131L