bayesRatings

Bucks at Hornets

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final MIL 123 – CHA 113
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL25383228123
CHA26402324113
Team box
MIL·CHA
44-84
field goals
40-93
16-34
3-pointers
17-46
19-22
free throws
16-20
31
rebounds
47
29
assists
28
9
turnovers
13
48
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA383185
LaMelo BallCHA292627
Bobby PortisMIL232521
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL252447
Myles TurnerMIL312361
Collin SextonCHA191618

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +13
MIL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 12 · MIL 13lead changes: 17

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 63%, CHA 37% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 4.9
Expected score
MIL 115.7 – 110.8 CHA
Expected total
226.4
BucksThe matchupHornets
−168Our fair odds+168
115.7Expected points110.8
−0.13Power rating−0.88
112.7Points / game115.6
116.0Allowed / game118.4
48.6FG%45.6
39.63P%36.4
40.5Rebounds / game44.6
13−19Season record11−20
4−6Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Mark Sears
Pete Nance · Taurean PrinceOutAntonio Reeves · Grant Williams
KJ Simpson · Kon Knueppel
Mason Plumlee

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair62.7%37.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−16863%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+16837%————
SpreadMIL by 4.9
MILMilwaukee Bucks−4.9our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.4
Over226.4our total————
Under226.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 4.9 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byCHA wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more54%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more38%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

226.4 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHA
Dec 27, 2025 at CHI
last game
Dec 26, 2025 at ORL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · left calf; contusionQuestionable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKon Knueppel · right ankle; sprainOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; strainOut
CHARyan Kalkbrenner · left elbow; sprainOut
CHASion James · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
MIL·CHA
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.88
112.7
points / game
115.6
116.0
points allowed / game
118.4
13−19
season record
11−20
8−8
home record
7−8
5−11
away record
4−12
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
48.6
FG%
45.6
39.6
3P%
36.4
40.5
rebounds / game
44.6
26.1
assists / game
26.2
15.2
turnovers / game
15.8
44.6
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

MIL · CHA · 61 days
Milwaukee BucksCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Nov 14, 2025at MILMIL 147 − 134
Nov 12, 2025at CHACHA 111 − 100
Feb 5, 2025at CHAMIL 112 − 102
Nov 23, 2024at MILMIL 125 − 119
Nov 16, 2024at CHACHA 115 − 114
Feb 29, 2024at CHAMIL 111 − 99
Feb 27, 2024at MILMIL 123 − 85
Feb 9, 2024at MILMIL 120 − 84
Nov 17, 2023at CHAMIL 130 − 99
Jan 31, 2023at MILMIL 124 − 115

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W

CHA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 26, 2025at ORL120 − 105W
Dec 23, 2025vs WSH126 − 109W
Dec 22, 2025at CLE132 − 139L
Dec 20, 2025at DET86 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs ATL133 − 126W
Dec 14, 2025at CLE119 − 111W
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI126 − 129L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN106 − 115L
Dec 5, 2025at TOR111 − 86W
Dec 3, 2025at NY104 − 119L