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Bucks at Bulls

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final MIL 112 – CHI 103
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL28263127112
CHI26243023103
Team box
MIL·CHI
40-86
field goals
39-93
13-36
3-pointers
13-38
19-24
free throws
12-16
47
rebounds
52
22
assists
28
12
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL252981
Ryan RollinsMIL352075
Bobby PortisMIL2417111
Nikola VucevicCHI261671
Coby WhiteCHI291621
Josh GiddeyCHI261379

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +15
MIL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 7 · MIL 15lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 47%, CHI 53% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 0.1
Expected score
MIL 119.6 – 119.5 CHI
Expected total
239.2
BucksThe matchupBulls
+114Our fair odds−114
119.6Expected points119.5
−0.13Power rating−0.22
112.7Points / game119.4
116.5Allowed / game122.3
48.6FG%47.6
39.73P%36.5
40.3Rebounds / game45.5
12−19Season record15−15
3−7Last 106−4
Alex Antetokounmpo · Mark Sears
Taurean PrinceOutEmanuel Miller · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa Essengue · Trentyn Flowers

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+11447%————
CHIChicago Bulls−11453%————
SpreadMIL by 0.1
MILMilwaukee Bucks−0.1our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.2
Over239.2our total————
Under239.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 0.1 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%
← MIL wins byCHI wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more40%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more27%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.2 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.567%
Total over 239.548%
Total over 249.530%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHI
Dec 26, 2025 at MEM
last game
Dec 26, 2025 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · left calf; contusionQuestionable
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainQuestionable
Chicago Bulls
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · g league - two-wayOut
CHIJosh Giddey · left ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
MIL·CHI
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
112.7
points / game
119.4
116.5
points allowed / game
122.3
12−19
season record
15−15
8−8
home record
8−6
4−11
away record
7−9
L1
streak
W5
3−7
last 10
6−4
48.6
FG%
47.6
39.7
3P%
36.5
40.3
rebounds / game
45.5
26.2
assists / game
29.5
15.3
turnovers / game
15.0
44.6
points in paint / game
55.1

Rating Trend

MIL · CHI · 59 days
Milwaukee BucksChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Nov 7, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 110
Dec 28, 2024at CHICHI 116 − 111
Dec 23, 2024at CHIMIL 112 − 91
Nov 20, 2024at MILMIL 122 − 106
Oct 25, 2024at MILCHI 133 − 122
Mar 1, 2024at CHIMIL 113 − 97
Dec 11, 2023at MILMIL 133 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at CHICHI 120 − 113
Nov 13, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 109
Apr 5, 2023at MILMIL 105 − 92

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Dec 26, 2025vs PHI109 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025at ATL126 − 123W
Dec 21, 2025at ATL152 − 150W
Dec 19, 2025at CLE136 − 125W
Dec 17, 2025vs CLE127 − 111W
Dec 14, 2025vs NO104 − 114L
Dec 12, 2025at CHA129 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs GS91 − 123L
Dec 5, 2025vs IND105 − 120L
Dec 3, 2025vs BKN103 − 113L