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Bucks at Pacers

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:30 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final MIL 111 – IND 94
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL26332725111
IND2024242694
Team box
MIL·IND
42-82
field goals
33-81
10-30
3-pointers
8-31
17-24
free throws
20-33
48
rebounds
40
20
assists
20
15
turnovers
12
52
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL382465
Ryan RollinsMIL332374
T.J. McConnellIND211626
Pascal SiakamIND331592
Kyle KuzmaMIL351572
Bobby PortisMIL321492

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +25
MIL +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 4 · MIL 25lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 44%, IND 56% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 1.7
Expected score
IND 115.9 – 114.2 MIL
Expected total
230.2
BucksThe matchupPacers
+129Our fair odds−129
114.2Expected points115.9
−0.13Power rating−0.10
113.1Points / game109.7
116.9Allowed / game117.9
48.7FG%43.2
40.13P%32.4
39.7Rebounds / game43.9
11−18Season record6−23
3−7Last 103−7
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean PrinceOutAaron Nesmith · Ben Sheppard
Isaiah Jackson · Obi Toppin
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · IND chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+12944%————
INDIndiana Pacers−12956%————
SpreadIND by 1.7
MILMilwaukee Bucks+1.7our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.2
Over230.2our total————
Under230.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.7 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%
← MIL wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more45%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more31%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

230.2 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FBobby Portisstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·IND
Dec 21, 2025 at MIN
last game
Dec 22, 2025 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee mcl; sprainOut
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · tear n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon;Out
INDKam Jones · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
INDT.J. McConnell · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
MIL·IND
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
113.1
points / game
109.7
116.9
points allowed / game
117.9
11−18
season record
6−23
8−8
home record
5−10
3−10
away record
1−13
L3
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
3−7
48.7
FG%
43.2
40.1
3P%
32.4
39.7
rebounds / game
43.9
26.7
assists / game
23.4
15.1
turnovers / game
13.8
44.9
points in paint / game
44.6

Rating Trend

MIL · IND · 56 days
Milwaukee BucksIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Nov 3, 2025at INDMIL 117 − 115
Apr 29, 2025at INDIND 119 − 118post
Apr 27, 2025at MILIND 129 − 103post
Apr 25, 2025at MILMIL 117 − 101post
Apr 22, 2025at INDIND 123 − 115post
Apr 19, 2025at INDIND 117 − 98post
Mar 15, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 119
Mar 11, 2025at INDIND 115 − 114
Dec 31, 2024at INDMIL 120 − 112
Nov 22, 2024at MILMIL 129 − 117

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W
Nov 28, 2025at NY109 − 118L

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L
Dec 12, 2025at PHI105 − 115L
Dec 8, 2025vs SAC116 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W