bayesRatings

Pacers at Celtics

NBA · Monday, Dec 22 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final IND 95 – BOS 103
← NBA / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND3526211395
BOS26173129103
Team box
IND·BOS
33-85
field goals
38-89
13-40
3-pointers
11-37
16-18
free throws
16-19
36
rebounds
49
19
assists
19
13
turnovers
13
28
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS333192
Pascal SiakamIND372563
Andrew NembhardIND362027
Derrick WhiteBOS321954
Bennedict MathurinIND371690
Ethan ThompsonIND341344

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +20
IND +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 10 · IND 20lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 27%, BOS 73% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 10.3
Expected score
BOS 116.9 – 106.6 IND
Expected total
223.5
PacersThe matchupCeltics
+276Our fair odds−276
106.6Expected points116.9
−0.04Power rating+0.76
110.2Points / game116.5
118.5Allowed / game110.5
43.3FG%47.3
32.53P%36.5
44.1Rebounds / game43.9
6−22Season record17−11
4−6Last 107−3
Aaron Nesmith · Ben Sheppard
Obi Toppin · T.J. McConnell
Tyrese HaliburtonOutJayson Tatum · Jordan Walsh

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · BOS chance
Our model fair26.6%73.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+27627%————
BOSBoston Celtics−27673%————
SpreadBOS by 10.3
INDIndiana Pacers+10.3our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.5
Over223.5our total————
Under223.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 10.3 expected
Indiana Pacers by 52 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%
← IND wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more67%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more52%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.5 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FJosh Minottstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·BOS
Dec 20, 2025 at NO
last game
Dec 20, 2025 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 22, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee; mcl sprainOut
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left knee; soreOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJordan Walsh · illness; non-covidOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
IND·BOS
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.76
110.2
points / game
116.5
118.5
points allowed / game
110.5
6−22
season record
17−11
5−10
home record
9−5
1−12
away record
8−6
L4
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
43.3
FG%
47.3
32.5
3P%
36.5
44.1
rebounds / game
43.9
23.5
assists / game
24.0
13.9
turnovers / game
11.9
45.1
points in paint / game
42.9

Rating Trend

IND · BOS · 55 days
Indiana PacersBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Dec 29, 2024at BOSIND 123 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at BOSBOS 142 − 105
Oct 30, 2024at INDIND 135 − 132
May 27, 2024at INDBOS 105 − 102post
May 25, 2024at INDBOS 114 − 111post
May 23, 2024at BOSBOS 126 − 110post
May 21, 2024at BOSBOS 133 − 128post
Jan 30, 2024at BOSBOS 129 − 124
Jan 8, 2024at INDIND 133 − 131
Jan 6, 2024at INDBOS 118 − 101

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L
Dec 12, 2025at PHI105 − 115L
Dec 8, 2025vs SAC116 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L
Dec 1, 2025vs CLE119 − 135L
Nov 29, 2025vs CHI103 − 101W
Nov 28, 2025vs WSH119 − 86W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 20, 2025at TOR112 − 96W
Dec 19, 2025vs MIA129 − 116W
Dec 15, 2025vs DET105 − 112L
Dec 11, 2025at MIL101 − 116L
Dec 7, 2025at TOR121 − 113W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAL126 − 105W
Dec 4, 2025at WSH146 − 101W
Dec 2, 2025vs NY123 − 117W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE117 − 115W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN115 − 119L