bayesRatings

Bucks at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Dec 26 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final MIL 104 – MEM 125
← NBA / Dec 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL35153321104
MEM25353233125
Team box
MIL·MEM
36-84
field goals
43-85
14-39
3-pointers
13-34
18-24
free throws
26-32
48
rebounds
42
18
assists
28
22
turnovers
14
28
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM302491
AJ GreenMIL352021
Cam SpencerMEM261955
Ja MorantMEM2517410
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL331685
Bobby PortisMIL3515123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +21
MIL +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 21 · MIL 10lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 40%, MEM 60% · Updated Dec 26, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 2.9
Expected score
MEM 117.5 – 114.6 MIL
Expected total
232.2
BucksThe matchupGrizzlies
+150Our fair odds−150
114.6Expected points117.5
−0.13Power rating+0.05
113.0Points / game115.0
116.2Allowed / game116.2
48.8FG%45.4
39.93P%35.0
40.0Rebounds / game46.2
12−18Season record14−16
4−6Last 106−4
Alex Antetokounmpo · Gary Trent Jr.
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Taurean PrinceOutBrandon Clarke · John Konchar
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Ty Jerome
Vince Williams Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MEM chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+15040%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−15060%————
SpreadMEM by 2.9
MILMilwaukee Bucks+2.9our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 2.9 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← MIL wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more48%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more33%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FBobby Portisstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MEM
Dec 23, 2025 at IND
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at UTAH
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 26, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · left calf; contusionOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMCedric Coward · left heel; sorenessQuestionable
MEMJa Morant · left ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
MIL·MEM
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
113.0
points / game
115.0
116.2
points allowed / game
116.2
12−18
season record
14−16
8−8
home record
6−8
4−10
away record
8−8
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
48.8
FG%
45.4
39.9
3P%
35.0
40.0
rebounds / game
46.2
26.5
assists / game
29.2
15.1
turnovers / game
15.1
45.1
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

MIL · MEM · 58 days
Milwaukee BucksMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MEM 7−1
Feb 2, 2025at MILMEM 132 − 119
Oct 31, 2024at MEMMEM 122 − 99
Apr 3, 2024at MILMEM 111 − 101
Feb 15, 2024at MEMMEM 113 − 110
Apr 7, 2023at MILMEM 137 − 114
Dec 15, 2022at MEMMEM 142 − 101
Mar 26, 2022at MEMMEM 127 − 102
Jan 19, 2022at MILMIL 126 − 114

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHI101 − 116L
Dec 3, 2025vs DET113 − 109W
Dec 1, 2025at WSH126 − 129L
Nov 29, 2025vs BKN116 − 99W

MEM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025vs UTAH126 − 130L
Dec 7, 2025vs POR119 − 96W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAC107 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 30, 2025at SAC115 − 107W