bayesRatings

Suns at Pelicans

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final PHX 123 – NO 114
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX32332830123
NO33223029114
Team box
PHX·NO
45-98
field goals
38-87
20-44
3-pointers
9-27
13-19
free throws
29-33
55
rebounds
43
26
assists
16
17
turnovers
13
44
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO372461
Zion WilliamsonNO292240
Derik QueenNO2721113
Devin BookerPHX342034
Jeremiah FearsNO341882
Dillon BrooksPHX331841

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +13
PHX +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 4 · PHX 13lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 61%, NO 39% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
PHX by 4.6
Expected score
PHX 118.8 – 114.2 NO
Expected total
232.9
SunsThe matchupPelicans
−155Our fair odds+155
118.8Expected points114.2
+0.00Power rating−0.67
114.9Points / game115.3
113.7Allowed / game122.6
46.9FG%46.2
35.83P%34.0
42.3Rebounds / game43.2
17−13Season record8−24
5−5Last 105−5
Grayson Allen · Jalen GreenOutDejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · NO chance
Our model fair60.7%39.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−15561%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+15539%————
SpreadPHX by 4.6
PHXPhoenix Suns−4.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.9
Over232.9our total————
Under232.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 4.6 expected
Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%
← PHX wins byNO wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more53%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more37%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

232.9 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.531%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·NO
Dec 26, 2025 at NO
last game
Dec 26, 2025 vs PHX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXMark Williams · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHXRyan Dunn · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
PHX·NO
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.67
114.9
points / game
115.3
113.7
points allowed / game
122.6
17−13
season record
8−24
10−5
home record
6−13
7−8
away record
2−11
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.9
FG%
46.2
35.8
3P%
34.0
42.3
rebounds / game
43.2
25.5
assists / game
24.8
15.9
turnovers / game
14.5
46.7
points in paint / game
58.3

Rating Trend

PHX · NO · 59 days
Phoenix SunsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 4−6
Dec 26, 2025at NOPHX 115 − 108
Nov 10, 2025at PHXPHX 121 − 98
Feb 28, 2025at PHXPHX 125 − 108
Feb 27, 2025at PHXNO 124 − 116
Dec 5, 2024at NONO 126 − 124
Apr 7, 2024at PHXNO 113 − 105
Apr 1, 2024at NOPHX 124 − 111
Jan 19, 2024at NOPHX 123 − 109
Dec 17, 2022at PHXPHX 118 − 114
Dec 11, 2022at NONO 129 − 124

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 26, 2025at NO115 − 108W
Dec 23, 2025vs LAL132 − 108W
Dec 20, 2025at GS116 − 119L
Dec 18, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 14, 2025vs LAL114 − 116L
Dec 10, 2025at OKC89 − 138L
Dec 8, 2025at MIN108 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at HOU98 − 117L
Dec 1, 2025at LAL125 − 108W
Nov 29, 2025vs DEN112 − 130L

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN116 − 125L