bayesRatings

Pelicans at Cavaliers

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final NO 118 – CLE 141
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO22383127118
CLE32374131141
Team box
NO·CLE
43-94
field goals
56-105
11-26
3-pointers
20-49
21-25
free throws
9-11
43
rebounds
49
26
assists
40
16
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE302744
Zion WilliamsonNO212651
Sam MerrillCLE262267
Derik QueenNO252175
Jaylon TysonCLE251862
Thomas BryantCLE221571

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +28
NO +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 28 · NO 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 22%, CLE 78% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 11.2
Expected score
CLE 123.8 – 112.7 NO
Expected total
236.5
PelicansThe matchupCavaliers
+364Our fair odds−364
112.7Expected points123.8
−0.67Power rating+0.41
115.4Points / game119.3
122.2Allowed / game117.5
46.3FG%46.2
34.23P%34.7
43.3Rebounds / game44.3
8−22Season record16−14
5−5Last 104−6
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Trey AlexanderOutChris Livingston · Evan Mobley
Larry Nance Jr. · Lonzo Ball
Luke Travers

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · CLE chance
Our model fair21.6%78.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+36422%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−36478%————
SpreadCLE by 11.2
NONew Orleans Pelicans+11.2our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−11.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.5
Over236.5our total————
Under236.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 11.2 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 53 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 51 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 52 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 53 points: <1%
← NO wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more69%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more54%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.5 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·CLE
Dec 22, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Dec 22, 2025 vs CHA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left ankle; sorenessQuestionable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; strainOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELonzo Ball · rest - left knee injury managementOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEDarius Garland · left quadricep; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
NO·CLE
−0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
115.4
points / game
119.3
122.2
points allowed / game
117.5
8−22
season record
16−14
6−12
home record
10−8
2−10
away record
6−6
W5
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
46.3
FG%
46.2
34.2
3P%
34.7
43.3
rebounds / game
44.3
24.9
assists / game
27.2
14.5
turnovers / game
13.9
58.2
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

NO · CLE · 56 days
New Orleans PelicansCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 6−2
Nov 20, 2024at CLECLE 128 − 100
Nov 6, 2024at NOCLE 131 − 122
Mar 13, 2024at NOCLE 116 − 95
Dec 21, 2023at CLENO 123 − 104
Feb 10, 2023at NOCLE 118 − 107
Jan 16, 2023at CLECLE 113 − 103
Jan 31, 2022at CLECLE 93 − 90
Dec 28, 2021at NONO 108 − 104

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak W5
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN116 − 125L
Dec 2, 2025vs MIN142 − 149L
Nov 30, 2025at LAL121 − 133L

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W
Dec 19, 2025vs CHI125 − 136L
Dec 17, 2025at CHI111 − 127L
Dec 14, 2025vs CHA111 − 119L
Dec 12, 2025at WSH130 − 126W
Dec 6, 2025vs GS94 − 99L
Dec 5, 2025vs SA130 − 117W
Dec 3, 2025vs POR110 − 122L
Dec 1, 2025at IND135 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025vs BOS115 − 117L