bayesRatings

Suns at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Jan 23 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final PHX 103 – ATL 110
← NBA / Jan 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX31283212103
ATL27372026110
Team box
PHX·ATL
42-95
field goals
43-81
11-34
3-pointers
13-26
8-9
free throws
11-16
42
rebounds
48
24
assists
28
13
turnovers
21
60
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX283143
Onyeka OkongwuATL362555
Jalen JohnsonATL3923189
CJ McCollumATL292140
Collin GillespiePHX351664
Grayson AllenPHX301633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +11
PHX +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 11 · PHX 7lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 52%, ATL 48% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
PHX by 0.9
Expected score
PHX 118.1 – 117.2 ATL
Expected total
235.3
SunsThe matchupHawks
−108Our fair odds+108
118.1Expected points117.2
+0.17Power rating−0.15
114.7Points / game117.6
111.8Allowed / game119.1
46.2FG%47.4
36.53P%36.5
43.2Rebounds / game42.0
27−17Season record21−25
7−3Last 104−6
—OutCaleb Houstan · Kristaps Porzingis
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · ATL chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−10852%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+10848%————
SpreadPHX by 0.9
PHXPhoenix Suns−0.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.3
Over235.3our total————
Under235.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 0.9 expected
Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%
← PHX wins byATL wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more42%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more29%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.3 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·ATL
Jan 20 at PHI
last game
Jan 21 at MEM
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 23, 5:00 PM ET
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
PHX·ATL
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
114.7
points / game
117.6
111.8
points allowed / game
119.1
27−17
season record
21−25
14−5
home record
7−13
13−12
away record
14−12
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
46.2
FG%
47.4
36.5
3P%
36.5
43.2
rebounds / game
42.0
25.3
assists / game
31.0
15.4
turnovers / game
14.7
44.3
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

PHX · ATL · 86 days
Phoenix SunsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 6−3
Nov 16, 2025at PHXATL 124 − 122
Jan 14, 2025at ATLATL 122 − 117
Jan 9, 2025at PHXPHX 123 − 115
Mar 21, 2024at PHXPHX 128 − 115
Feb 2, 2024at ATLATL 129 − 120
Feb 9, 2023at ATLATL 116 − 107
Feb 1, 2023at PHXATL 132 − 100
Feb 3, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 115
Nov 6, 2021at PHXPHX 121 − 117

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jan 20at PHI116 − 110W
Jan 19at BKN126 − 117W
Jan 17at NY106 − 99W
Jan 15at DET105 − 108L
Jan 13at MIA121 − 127L
Jan 11vs WSH112 − 93W
Jan 9vs NY112 − 107W
Jan 7at MEM117 − 98W
Jan 5at HOU97 − 100L
Jan 4vs OKC108 − 105W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L