bayesRatings

Hawks at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final ATL 124 – MEM 122
← NBA / Jan 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL31352830124
MEM32273627122
Team box
ATL·MEM
43-92
field goals
43-93
20-45
3-pointers
12-35
18-24
free throws
24-27
42
rebounds
43
34
assists
26
17
turnovers
18
42
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3932158
Ja MorantMEM3023212
Onyeka OkongwuATL281891
Luke KennardATL251842
Jaylen WellsMEM261840
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM321762

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +11
ATL +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 11 · ATL 11lead changes: 21

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 40%, MEM 60% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
MEM by 2.8
Expected score
MEM 121.3 – 118.5 ATL
Expected total
239.8
HawksThe matchupGrizzlies
+148Our fair odds−148
118.5Expected points121.3
−0.15Power rating+0.01
117.5Points / game115.1
119.0Allowed / game116.0
47.4FG%45.6
36.43P%34.9
42.0Rebounds / game46.3
20−25Season record18−23
4−6Last 103−7
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Zaccharie RisacherOutBrandon Clarke · Jahmai Mashack
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Ty Jerome
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MEM chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+14840%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−14860%————
SpreadMEM by 2.8
ATLAtlanta Hawks+2.8our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.8
Over239.8our total————
Under239.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 2.8 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← ATL wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more48%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more33%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJohn Koncharstarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MEM
Jan 19 vs MIL
last game
Jan 18 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 21, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; sorenessDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
ATL·MEM
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
117.5
points / game
115.1
119.0
points allowed / game
116.0
20−25
season record
18−23
7−13
home record
10−11
13−12
away record
8−12
L4
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
47.4
FG%
45.6
36.4
3P%
34.9
42.0
rebounds / game
46.3
31.0
assists / game
29.0
14.6
turnovers / game
15.3
51.8
points in paint / game
49.4

Rating Trend

ATL · MEM · 84 days
Atlanta HawksMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MEM 4−4
Mar 3, 2025at MEMATL 132 − 130
Dec 21, 2024at ATLMEM 128 − 112
Mar 8, 2024at MEMATL 99 − 92
Dec 23, 2023at ATLMEM 125 − 119
Mar 26, 2023at ATLMEM 123 − 119
Dec 12, 2022at MEMMEM 128 − 103
Mar 18, 2022at ATLATL 120 − 105
Nov 26, 2021at MEMATL 132 − 100

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 18vs ORL126 − 109W
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L