bayesRatings

Hawks at Knicks

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 6:30 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final ATL 111 – NY 99
← NBA / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL33273417111
NY3017232999
Team box
ATL·NY
42-88
field goals
36-97
12-36
3-pointers
9-42
15-25
free throws
18-21
49
rebounds
52
31
assists
27
13
turnovers
15
58
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY352425
Onyeka OkongwuATL302392
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342343
OG AnunobyNY3519101
Jalen JohnsonATL38181011
Mikal BridgesNY351855

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +26
ATL +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 9 · ATL 26lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 28%, NY 72% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
NY by 8.2
Expected score
NY 122.9 – 114.7 ATL
Expected total
237.6
HawksThe matchupKnicks
+252Our fair odds−252
114.7Expected points122.9
−0.20Power rating+0.51
119.3Points / game121.2
120.1Allowed / game114.6
48.3FG%47.8
36.83P%38.6
41.6Rebounds / game46.5
16−19Season record24−10
2−8Last 107−3
Caleb Houstan · Malik Williams
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
RayJ DennisOutJosh Hart · Landry Shamet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NY chance
Our model fair28.4%71.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+25228%————
NYNew York Knicks−25272%————
SpreadNY by 8.2
ATLAtlanta Hawks+8.2our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.6
Over237.6our total————
Under237.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 8.2 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 22 points: 2%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%New York Knicks by 50 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more62%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more46%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.6 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
New York Knicks
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
GMiles McBridestarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CAriel Hukportistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NY
Dec 31, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Dec 31, 2025 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLMalik Williams · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLTrae Young · right quad; contusionOut
New York Knicks
NYJosh Hart · right ankle; sprainOut
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYKarl-Anthony Towns · illness; illnessQuestionable
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
ATL·NY
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
119.3
points / game
121.2
120.1
points allowed / game
114.6
16−19
season record
24−10
6−11
home record
16−2
10−8
away record
8−8
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
48.3
FG%
47.8
36.8
3P%
38.6
41.6
rebounds / game
46.5
31.3
assists / game
27.3
15.2
turnovers / game
13.4
52.7
points in paint / game
48.6

Rating Trend

ATL · NY · 65 days
Atlanta HawksNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 7−3
Dec 27, 2025at ATLNY 128 − 125
Apr 5, 2025at ATLNY 121 − 105
Feb 12, 2025at NYNY 149 − 148
Jan 20, 2025at NYNY 119 − 110
Dec 11, 2024at NYATL 108 − 100
Nov 6, 2024at ATLATL 121 − 116
Mar 5, 2024at NYATL 116 − 100
Nov 15, 2023at ATLNY 116 − 114
Oct 27, 2023at ATLNY 126 − 120
Feb 15, 2023at ATLNY 122 − 101

ATL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 31, 2025at SA132 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025at NO130 − 125W
Dec 27, 2025at ATL128 − 125W
Dec 25, 2025vs CLE126 − 124W
Dec 23, 2025at MIN104 − 115L
Dec 21, 2025vs MIA132 − 125W
Dec 19, 2025vs PHI107 − 116L
Dec 18, 2025at IND114 − 113W
Dec 16, 2025vs SA124 − 113W
Dec 13, 2025at ORL132 − 120W