bayesRatings

Knicks at Pelicans

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final NY 130 – NO 125
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY37352434130
NO41342822125
Team box
NY·NO
46-95
field goals
44-96
20-44
3-pointers
14-36
18-19
free throws
23-27
42
rebounds
50
35
assists
27
9
turnovers
12
42
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO293252
Jalen BrunsonNY3628310
Saddiq BeyNO372666
Jordan PooleNO262632
OG AnunobyNY3723111
Trey Murphy IIINO382162

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +10
NY +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 10 · NY 5lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 72%, NO 28% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 9.1
Expected score
NY 120.8 – 111.7 NO
Expected total
232.4
KnicksThe matchupPelicans
−258Our fair odds+258
120.8Expected points111.7
+0.52Power rating−0.67
120.6Points / game115.2
113.7Allowed / game122.6
47.8FG%46.2
38.33P%34.0
46.8Rebounds / game43.2
23−9Season record8−25
8−2Last 105−5
Josh Hart · Landry Shamet
Mitchell RobinsonOutDejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose Alvarado

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · NO chance
Our model fair72.1%27.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−25872%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+25828%————
SpreadNY by 9.1
NYNew York Knicks−9.1our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.4
Over232.4our total————
Under232.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 9.1 expected
New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%
← NY wins byNO wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more66%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more49%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.4 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
FMohamed Diawarastarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·NO
Dec 27, 2025 at ATL
last game
Dec 27, 2025 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYJosh Hart · right ankle; sprainOut
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
NYTyler Kolek · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
NYMiles McBride · left ankle; sprainProbable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · league suspensionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
NY·NO
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
−0.67
120.6
points / game
115.2
113.7
points allowed / game
122.6
23−9
season record
8−25
16−2
home record
6−14
7−7
away record
2−11
W2
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
5−5
47.8
FG%
46.2
38.3
3P%
34.0
46.8
rebounds / game
43.2
26.9
assists / game
24.5
13.6
turnovers / game
14.5
49.1
points in paint / game
58.2

Rating Trend

NY · NO · 61 days
New York KnicksNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NO 4−4
Dec 21, 2024at NONY 104 − 93
Dec 1, 2024at NYNY 118 − 85
Feb 27, 2024at NYNO 115 − 92
Oct 28, 2023at NONO 96 − 87
Apr 7, 2023at NONO 113 − 105
Feb 25, 2023at NYNY 128 − 106
Jan 20, 2022at NYNO 102 − 91
Oct 30, 2021at NONY 123 − 117

NY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Dec 27, 2025at ATL128 − 125W
Dec 25, 2025vs CLE126 − 124W
Dec 23, 2025at MIN104 − 115L
Dec 21, 2025vs MIA132 − 125W
Dec 19, 2025vs PHI107 − 116L
Dec 18, 2025at IND114 − 113W
Dec 16, 2025vs SA124 − 113W
Dec 13, 2025at ORL132 − 120W
Dec 9, 2025at TOR117 − 101W
Dec 7, 2025vs ORL106 − 100W

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L