bayesRatings

Knicks at Spurs

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 6:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final NY 132 – SA 134
← NBA / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY45282930132
SA36273041134
Team box
NY·SA
46-96
field goals
44-89
22-52
3-pointers
14-38
18-20
free throws
32-40
40
rebounds
48
32
assists
25
10
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julian ChampagnieSA363660
Victor WembanyamaSA2431131
Jalen BrunsonNY362948
De'Aaron FoxSA382617
Miles McBrideNY262132
Karl-Anthony TownsNY332074

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +19
NY +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 6 · NY 19lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 53%, SA 47% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 1.0
Expected score
NY 116.3 – 115.3 SA
Expected total
231.7
KnicksThe matchupSpurs
−113Our fair odds+113
116.3Expected points115.3
+0.51Power rating+0.15
120.9Points / game119.3
114.0Allowed / game113.9
47.8FG%48.2
38.53P%36.0
46.7Rebounds / game46.1
24−9Season record23−10
8−2Last 107−3
Josh Hart · Landry Shamet
Mitchell RobinsonOut (3 each)Devin Vassell · Harrison Ingram
Stanley Umude

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · SA chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−11353%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+11347%————
SpreadNY by 1.0
NYNew York Knicks−1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.7
Over231.7our total————
Under231.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 1.0 expected
New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%
← NY wins bySA wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more42%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more29%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.7 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
FMohamed Diawarastarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·SA
Dec 29, 2025 at NO
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 31, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYJosh Hart · right ankle; sprainOut
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAStephon Castle · left thumb; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
NY·SA
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
120.9
points / game
119.3
114.0
points allowed / game
113.9
24−9
season record
23−10
16−2
home record
11−4
8−7
away record
12−6
W3
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
7−3
47.8
FG%
48.2
38.5
3P%
36.0
46.7
rebounds / game
46.1
27.2
assists / game
26.2
13.5
turnovers / game
14.2
48.8
points in paint / game
50.7

Rating Trend

NY · SA · 63 days
New York KnicksSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 3−6
Dec 16, 2025at NYNY 124 − 113
Mar 19, 2025at SASA 120 − 105
Dec 25, 2024at NYNY 117 − 114
Mar 29, 2024at SASA 130 − 126
Nov 8, 2023at NYNY 126 − 105
Jan 4, 2023at NYNY 117 − 114
Dec 29, 2022at SASA 122 − 115
Jan 10, 2022at NYNY 111 − 96
Dec 7, 2021at SANY 121 − 109

NY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 29, 2025at NO130 − 125W
Dec 27, 2025at ATL128 − 125W
Dec 25, 2025vs CLE126 − 124W
Dec 23, 2025at MIN104 − 115L
Dec 21, 2025vs MIA132 − 125W
Dec 19, 2025vs PHI107 − 116L
Dec 18, 2025at IND114 − 113W
Dec 16, 2025vs SA124 − 113W
Dec 13, 2025at ORL132 − 120W
Dec 9, 2025at TOR117 − 101W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L
Dec 13, 2025at OKC111 − 109W
Dec 10, 2025at LAL132 − 119W