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Cavaliers at Spurs

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final CLE 113 – SA 101
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE25242737113
SA26292323101
Team box
CLE·SA
41-96
field goals
32-83
13-42
3-pointers
7-31
18-20
free throws
30-36
47
rebounds
52
29
assists
21
14
turnovers
18
48
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jarrett AllenCLE2827100
Victor WembanyamaSA2726143
Evan MobleyCLE291672
Darius GarlandCLE3115511
Stephon CastleSA341548
De'Aaron FoxSA321423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +13
CLE +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 11 · CLE 13lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, SA 49% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 0.9
Expected score
CLE 118.9 – 118.0 SA
Expected total
236.9
CavaliersThe matchupSpurs
−106Our fair odds+106
118.9Expected points118.0
+0.41Power rating+0.13
119.5Points / game119.9
117.8Allowed / game114.0
46.5FG%48.5
35.03P%36.4
44.4Rebounds / game45.9
17−16Season record23−9
4−6Last 108−2
Chris Livingston · Larry Nance Jr.
Luke Travers · Max StrusOutHarrison Ingram · Stanley Umude

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · SA chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−10651%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+10649%————
SpreadCLE by 0.9
CLECleveland Cavaliers−0.9our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.9
Over236.9our total————
Under236.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 0.9 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%
← CLE wins bySA wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more42%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more29%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.9 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.569%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·SA
Dec 27, 2025 at HOU
last game
Dec 27, 2025 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
San Antonio Spurs
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SADe'Aaron Fox · left adductor; tightness/illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
CLE·SA
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
119.5
points / game
119.9
117.8
points allowed / game
114.0
17−16
season record
23−9
11−8
home record
11−3
6−8
away record
12−6
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
8−2
46.5
FG%
48.5
35.0
3P%
36.4
44.4
rebounds / game
45.9
27.6
assists / game
26.3
13.9
turnovers / game
14.1
49.6
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

CLE · SA · 61 days
Cleveland CavaliersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 1−8
Dec 5, 2025at CLECLE 130 − 117
Apr 4, 2025at SACLE 114 − 113
Mar 27, 2025at CLECLE 124 − 116
Feb 3, 2024at SACLE 117 − 101
Jan 7, 2024at CLECLE 117 − 115
Feb 13, 2023at CLECLE 117 − 109
Dec 12, 2022at SASA 112 − 111
Feb 9, 2022at CLECLE 105 − 92
Jan 14, 2022at SACLE 114 − 109

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 27, 2025at HOU100 − 117L
Dec 25, 2025at NY124 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs NO141 − 118W
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W
Dec 19, 2025vs CHI125 − 136L
Dec 17, 2025at CHI111 − 127L
Dec 14, 2025vs CHA111 − 119L
Dec 12, 2025at WSH130 − 126W
Dec 6, 2025vs GS94 − 99L
Dec 5, 2025vs SA130 − 117W

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L
Dec 13, 2025at OKC111 − 109W
Dec 10, 2025at LAL132 − 119W
Dec 8, 2025at NO135 − 132W