bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Rockets

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final CLE 100 – HOU 117
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE24221737100
HOU32283027117
Team box
CLE·HOU
41-96
field goals
43-88
11-36
3-pointers
16-35
7-11
free throws
15-21
42
rebounds
51
23
assists
27
15
turnovers
17
56
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU293047
Jaylon TysonCLE3023150
Reed SheppardHOU321838
Donovan MitchellCLE301636
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU261572
Amen ThompsonHOU331394

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +31
CLE +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 31 · CLE 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 40%, HOU 60% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 4.1
Expected score
HOU 117.8 – 113.8 CLE
Expected total
231.6
CavaliersThe matchupRockets
+150Our fair odds−150
113.8Expected points117.8
+0.41Power rating+0.59
120.2Points / game120.5
117.8Allowed / game112.1
46.6FG%49.1
35.23P%40.0
44.5Rebounds / game48.7
17−15Season record18−10
4−6Last 105−5
Chris Livingston · Larry Nance Jr.
Luke Travers · Max StrusOutFred VanVleet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · HOU chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers+15040%————
HOUHouston Rockets−15060%————
SpreadHOU by 4.1
CLECleveland Cavaliers+4.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.6
Over231.6our total————
Under231.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.1 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%
← CLE wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more36%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.6 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CSteven Adamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·HOU
Dec 25, 2025 at NY
last game
Dec 25, 2025 at LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLENae'Qwan Tomlin · g league - two-wayQuestionable
CLEDarius Garland · illness; illnessProbable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · left calf; tightnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
CLE·HOU
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
120.2
points / game
120.5
117.8
points allowed / game
112.1
17−15
season record
18−10
11−8
home record
8−2
6−7
away record
10−8
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
46.6
FG%
49.1
35.2
3P%
40.0
44.5
rebounds / game
48.7
27.7
assists / game
25.8
13.9
turnovers / game
16.2
49.4
points in paint / game
55.0

Rating Trend

CLE · HOU · 59 days
Cleveland CavaliersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 5−4
Nov 19, 2025at CLEHOU 114 − 104
Jan 25, 2025at CLEHOU 135 − 131
Jan 22, 2025at HOUHOU 109 − 108
Mar 16, 2024at HOUHOU 117 − 103
Dec 18, 2023at CLECLE 135 − 130
Mar 26, 2023at CLECLE 108 − 91
Jan 26, 2023at HOUCLE 113 − 95
Feb 2, 2022at HOUHOU 115 − 104
Dec 15, 2021at CLECLE 124 − 89

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 25, 2025at NY124 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs NO141 − 118W
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W
Dec 19, 2025vs CHI125 − 136L
Dec 17, 2025at CHI111 − 127L
Dec 14, 2025vs CHA111 − 119L
Dec 12, 2025at WSH130 − 126W
Dec 6, 2025vs GS94 − 99L
Dec 5, 2025vs SA130 − 117W
Dec 3, 2025vs POR110 − 122L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W