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Rockets at Lakers

NBA · Thursday, Dec 25 · 7:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final HOU 119 – LAL 96
← NBA / Dec 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU37262927119
LAL2528212296
Team box
HOU·LAL
48-90
field goals
39-77
8-24
3-pointers
11-30
15-19
free throws
7-11
48
rebounds
25
24
assists
19
16
turnovers
16
68
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Amen ThompsonHOU322675
Kevin DurantHOU332548
Luka DoncicLAL342557
LeBron JamesLAL321825
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU361670
Alperen SengunHOU3114124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +24
HOU +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 0 · HOU 24lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 52%, LAL 48% · Updated Dec 25, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 0.8
Expected score
HOU 114.8 – 114.0 LAL
Expected total
228.8
RocketsThe matchupLakers
−109Our fair odds+109
114.8Expected points114.0
+0.59Power rating+0.27
120.5Points / game117.7
112.7Allowed / game117.4
49.0FG%50.0
40.33P%34.7
48.7Rebounds / game41.8
17−10Season record19−9
4−6Last 105−5
Fred VanVleetOutGabe Vincent · Jaxson Hayes

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAL chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−10952%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+10948%————
SpreadHOU by 0.8
HOUHouston Rockets−0.8our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 0.8 expected
Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins byLAL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more42%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more28%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAL
Dec 23, 2025 at LAC
last game
Dec 23, 2025 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 25, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · left calf; tightnessQuestionable
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryQuestionable
HOUJae'Sean Tate · left wrist; contusionQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALGabe Vincent · lumbar back; strainOut
LALJaxson Hayes · left ankle; sorenessOut
LALLuka Doncic · lower left leg; contusionProbable
LALRui Hachimura · right groin; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
HOU·LAL
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
120.5
points / game
117.7
112.7
points allowed / game
117.4
17−10
season record
19−9
8−2
home record
7−4
9−8
away record
12−5
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
49.0
FG%
50.0
40.3
3P%
34.7
48.7
rebounds / game
41.8
25.8
assists / game
24.9
16.2
turnovers / game
15.3
54.5
points in paint / game
51.2

Rating Trend

HOU · LAL · 57 days
Houston RocketsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 6−4
Apr 11, 2025at LALLAL 140 − 109
Mar 31, 2025at LALLAL 104 − 98
Jan 5, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 115
Jan 29, 2024at HOUHOU 135 − 119
Dec 2, 2023at LALLAL 107 − 97
Nov 19, 2023at LALLAL 105 − 104
Nov 8, 2023at HOUHOU 128 − 94
Apr 2, 2023at HOULAL 134 − 109
Mar 15, 2023at HOUHOU 114 − 110
Jan 16, 2023at LALLAL 140 − 132

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 23, 2025at PHX108 − 132L
Dec 20, 2025at LAC88 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025at UTAH143 − 135W
Dec 14, 2025at PHX116 − 114W
Dec 10, 2025vs SA119 − 132L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI112 − 108W
Dec 5, 2025at BOS105 − 126L
Dec 4, 2025at TOR123 − 120W
Dec 1, 2025vs PHX108 − 125L
Nov 30, 2025vs NO133 − 121W