bayesRatings

Rockets at Kings

NBA · Sunday, Dec 21 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final HOU 124 – SAC 125
← NBA / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
HOU3137232112124
SAC3027253013125
Team box
HOU·SAC
45-94
field goals
44-95
16-38
3-pointers
12-32
18-24
free throws
25-36
47
rebounds
55
31
assists
29
15
turnovers
12
50
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU412863
DeMar DeRozanSAC402749
Keegan MurraySAC472640
Kevin DurantHOU4824108
Dennis SchroderSAC3224710
Russell WestbrookSAC2921134

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +14
HOU +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: SAC 10 · HOU 14lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 68%, SAC 32% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 7.2
Expected score
HOU 118.8 – 111.6 SAC
Expected total
230.3
RocketsThe matchupKings
−209Our fair odds+209
118.8Expected points111.6
+0.63Power rating−0.34
120.9Points / game111.0
111.6Allowed / game121.9
49.0FG%46.4
40.63P%34.6
49.0Rebounds / game40.2
17−8Season record6−22
6−4Last 101−9
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleetOutDaeqwon Plowden · Devin Carter
Domantas Sabonis · Drew Eubanks
Isaiah Stevens

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SAC chance
Our model fair67.6%32.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−20968%————
SACSacramento Kings+20932%————
SpreadHOU by 7.2
HOUHouston Rockets−7.2our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.3
Over230.3our total————
Under230.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 7.2 expected
Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%
← HOU wins bySAC wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more60%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more44%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SAC
Dec 20, 2025 at DEN
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs POR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 21, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDevin Carter · g league - on assignmentOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; avulsion fractureOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACZach LaVine · left ankle; sprainOut
SACDoug McDermott · left knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
HOU·SAC
+0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
120.9
points / game
111.0
111.6
points allowed / game
121.9
17−8
season record
6−22
8−2
home record
3−9
9−6
away record
3−13
W1
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
1−9
49.0
FG%
46.4
40.6
3P%
34.6
49.0
rebounds / game
40.2
25.6
assists / game
25.2
16.4
turnovers / game
14.4
54.5
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

HOU · SAC · 54 days
Houston RocketsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 6−4
Dec 3, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 95
Mar 1, 2025at HOUSAC 113 − 103
Jan 16, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 127
Dec 3, 2024at SACSAC 120 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at SACHOU 112 − 104
Nov 6, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 97
Nov 4, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 89
Feb 8, 2023at HOUSAC 130 − 128
Feb 6, 2023at HOUSAC 140 − 120
Jan 13, 2023at SACSAC 139 − 114

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W
Nov 26, 2025at GS104 − 100W

SAC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Dec 20, 2025vs POR93 − 98L
Dec 18, 2025at POR133 − 134L
Dec 14, 2025at MIN103 − 117L
Dec 11, 2025vs DEN105 − 136L
Dec 8, 2025at IND105 − 116L
Dec 6, 2025at MIA127 − 111W
Dec 3, 2025at HOU95 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs MEM107 − 115L
Nov 28, 2025at UTAH119 − 128L
Nov 26, 2025vs PHX100 − 112L