bayesRatings

Rockets at Clippers

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final HOU 108 – LAC 128
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU35232426108
LAC29343530128
Team box
HOU·LAC
43-86
field goals
42-77
9-30
3-pointers
20-37
13-18
free throws
24-27
42
rebounds
34
25
assists
25
13
turnovers
10
60
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC374185
James HardenLAC352946
Kevin DurantHOU292251
Alperen SengunHOU2819117
Amen ThompsonHOU351995
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU321611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +26
HOU +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 26 · HOU 9lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 58%, LAC 42% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 2.2
Expected score
HOU 112.3 – 110.1 LAC
Expected total
222.4
RocketsThe matchupClippers
−140Our fair odds+140
112.3Expected points110.1
+0.59Power rating+0.02
121.0Points / game110.6
112.2Allowed / game116.0
48.9FG%46.9
40.73P%35.0
49.0Rebounds / game41.2
17−9Season record7−21
5−5Last 102−8
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleetOutBradley Beal · Chris Paul
Derrick Jones Jr. · Ivica Zubac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAC chance
Our model fair58.3%41.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−14058%————
LACLA Clippers+14042%————
SpreadHOU by 2.2
HOUHouston Rockets−2.2our margin————
LACLA Clippers+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.4
Over222.4our total————
Under222.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.2 expected
Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%
← HOU wins byLAC wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more46%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more32%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.4 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAC
Dec 21, 2025 at SAC
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACChris Paul · not with teamOut
LACDerrick Jones Jr. · right knee; sprainOut
LACIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
HOU·LAC
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
121.0
points / game
110.6
112.2
points allowed / game
116.0
17−9
season record
7−21
8−2
home record
4−8
9−7
away record
3−13
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
48.9
FG%
46.9
40.7
3P%
35.0
49.0
rebounds / game
41.2
25.8
assists / game
23.7
16.3
turnovers / game
16.2
54.3
points in paint / game
46.8

Rating Trend

HOU · LAC · 56 days
Houston RocketsLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 5−5
Dec 11, 2025at HOUHOU 115 − 113
Apr 9, 2025at LACLAC 134 − 117
Dec 8, 2024at LACHOU 117 − 106
Nov 15, 2024at HOUHOU 125 − 104
Nov 13, 2024at HOUHOU 111 − 103
Apr 14, 2024at LACHOU 116 − 105
Mar 6, 2024at HOULAC 122 − 116
Nov 17, 2023at LACLAC 106 − 100
Jan 15, 2023at LACLAC 121 − 100
Nov 14, 2022at HOULAC 122 − 106

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W
Dec 3, 2025vs SAC121 − 95W
Dec 1, 2025at UTAH125 − 133L
Nov 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 101W

LAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025vs LAL103 − 88W
Dec 18, 2025at OKC101 − 122L
Dec 15, 2025vs MEM103 − 121L
Dec 11, 2025at HOU113 − 115L
Dec 6, 2025at MIN106 − 109L
Dec 5, 2025at MEM98 − 107L
Dec 3, 2025at ATL115 − 92W
Dec 1, 2025at MIA123 − 140L
Nov 29, 2025vs DAL110 − 114L
Nov 28, 2025vs MEM107 − 112L