bayesRatings

Jazz at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final UTAH 127 – SA 114
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH32382829127
SA40202727114
Team box
UTAH·SA
45-83
field goals
43-99
17-37
3-pointers
10-44
20-26
free throws
18-21
37
rebounds
46
34
assists
30
16
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA283273
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH342951
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH352856
Keldon JohnsonSA2527101
Stephon CastleSA332027
Walter Clayton Jr.UTAH221725

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +17
UTAH +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 11 · UTAH 17lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 24%, SA 76% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 9.1
Expected score
SA 126.0 – 116.9 UTAH
Expected total
242.8
JazzThe matchupSpurs
+309Our fair odds−309
116.9Expected points126.0
−0.79Power rating+0.13
120.3Points / game120.1
127.5Allowed / game113.5
45.8FG%48.6
35.43P%36.8
45.5Rebounds / game45.9
11−19Season record23−8
4−6Last 108−2
Ace Bailey · Elijah Harkless
Georges Niang · John Tonje
Kevin LoveOutDavid Jones Garcia · De'Aaron Fox
Harrison Ingram · Stanley Umude

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · SA chance
Our model fair24.4%75.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+30924%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−30976%————
SpreadSA by 9.1
UTAHUtah Jazz+9.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.8
Over242.8our total————
Under242.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 9.1 expected
Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%
← UTAH wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more64%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more49%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.8 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.568%
Total over 242.549%
Total over 252.531%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·SA
Dec 26, 2025 vs DET
last game
Dec 25, 2025 at OKC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHAce Bailey · left hip flexor; strainOut
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHKevin Love · restOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADe'Aaron Fox · left adductor; tightness/illnessOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
UTAH·SA
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
120.3
points / game
120.1
127.5
points allowed / game
113.5
11−19
season record
23−8
8−10
home record
11−2
3−9
away record
12−6
W1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
8−2
45.8
FG%
48.6
35.4
3P%
36.8
45.5
rebounds / game
45.9
30.1
assists / game
26.2
15.9
turnovers / game
14.2
49.1
points in paint / game
50.6

Rating Trend

UTAH · SA · 59 days
Utah JazzSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 5−5
Nov 26, 2024at UTAHSA 128 − 115
Nov 21, 2024at SASA 126 − 118
Nov 9, 2024at SAUTAH 111 − 110
Oct 31, 2024at UTAHSA 106 − 88
Mar 27, 2024at UTAHSA 118 − 111
Feb 25, 2024at UTAHUTAH 128 − 109
Dec 26, 2023at SAUTAH 130 − 118
Mar 29, 2023at SAUTAH 128 − 117
Feb 28, 2023at UTAHSA 102 − 94
Feb 25, 2023at UTAHUTAH 118 − 102

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 26, 2025vs DET131 − 129W
Dec 23, 2025vs MEM128 − 137L
Dec 22, 2025at DEN112 − 135L
Dec 20, 2025vs ORL127 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAL135 − 143L
Dec 15, 2025vs DAL140 − 133W
Dec 12, 2025at MEM130 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 131L
Dec 5, 2025at NY112 − 146L
Dec 4, 2025at BKN123 − 110W

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L
Dec 13, 2025at OKC111 − 109W
Dec 10, 2025at LAL132 − 119W
Dec 8, 2025at NO135 − 132W
Dec 5, 2025at CLE117 − 130L