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Timberwolves at Hawks

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 2:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MIN 102 – ATL 126
← NBA / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN26232429102
ATL33372828126
Team box
MIN·ATL
37-87
field goals
51-104
14-40
3-pointers
16-42
14-18
free throws
8-16
46
rebounds
49
22
assists
38
16
turnovers
10
36
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3234106
Anthony EdwardsMIN333052
Julius RandleMIN311972
Onyeka OkongwuATL271785
Kristaps PorzingisATL171621
Luke KennardATL271565

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +34
MIN +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 34 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 63%, ATL 37% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 4.9
Expected score
MIN 121.0 – 116.0 ATL
Expected total
237.0
TimberwolvesThe matchupHawks
−170Our fair odds+170
121.0Expected points116.0
+0.57Power rating−0.20
119.3Points / game119.1
114.2Allowed / game120.6
47.8FG%48.2
37.13P%36.8
44.1Rebounds / game41.4
21−12Season record15−19
6−4Last 102−8
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.OutCaleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
Malik Williams · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair63.0%37.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−17063%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+17037%————
SpreadMIN by 4.9
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.0
Over237.0our total————
Under237.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.9 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%
← MIN wins byATL wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more54%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more38%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.0 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·ATL
Dec 29, 2025 at CHI
last game
Dec 29, 2025 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 31, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLMalik Williams · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right quad; contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
MIN·ATL
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
119.3
points / game
119.1
114.2
points allowed / game
120.6
21−12
season record
15−19
12−6
home record
5−11
9−6
away record
10−8
W1
streak
L7
6−4
last 10
2−8
47.8
FG%
48.2
37.1
3P%
36.8
44.1
rebounds / game
41.4
26.7
assists / game
31.1
14.2
turnovers / game
15.3
50.4
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

MIN · ATL · 63 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ATL 4−4
Jan 27, 2025at MINMIN 100 − 92
Dec 23, 2024at ATLATL 117 − 104
Apr 12, 2024at MINMIN 109 − 106
Oct 30, 2023at ATLATL 127 − 113
Mar 22, 2023at MINMIN 125 − 124
Mar 13, 2023at ATLMIN 136 − 115
Jan 19, 2022at ATLATL 134 − 122
Dec 6, 2021at MINATL 121 − 110

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L

ATL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L
Dec 14, 2025vs PHI120 − 117W
Dec 12, 2025at DET115 − 142L
Dec 6, 2025at WSH131 − 116W