bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Bulls

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final MIN 136 – CHI 101
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN21344041136
CHI23272823101
Team box
MIN·CHI
51-95
field goals
38-93
15-37
3-pointers
13-38
19-25
free throws
12-14
46
rebounds
42
32
assists
25
5
turnovers
17
60
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Naz ReidMIN273373
Nikola VucevicCHI302352
Anthony EdwardsMIN322324
Julius RandleMIN2817514
Matas BuzelisCHI241352
Donte DiVincenzoMIN271263

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +41
MIN +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 9 · MIN 41lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 64%, CHI 36% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 5.7
Expected score
MIN 120.8 – 115.2 CHI
Expected total
236.0
TimberwolvesThe matchupBulls
−179Our fair odds+179
120.8Expected points115.2
+0.60Power rating−0.22
118.8Points / game118.8
114.7Allowed / game122.0
47.7FG%47.5
37.03P%36.5
44.1Rebounds / game45.7
20−12Season record15−16
6−4Last 106−4
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.OutEmanuel Miller · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa Essengue · Trentyn Flowers
Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHI chance
Our model fair64.1%35.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−17964%————
CHIChicago Bulls+17936%————
SpreadMIN by 5.7
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−5.7our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+5.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 5.7 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCHI wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more56%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more40%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHI
Dec 27, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Dec 27, 2025 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIEmanuel Miller · right hamstring; strainOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · left ankle; sprainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · right knee; hyperextensionOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
MIN·CHI
+0.60
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
118.8
points / game
118.8
114.7
points allowed / game
122.0
20−12
season record
15−16
12−6
home record
8−7
8−6
away record
7−9
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.7
FG%
47.5
37.0
3P%
36.5
44.1
rebounds / game
45.7
26.5
assists / game
29.5
14.5
turnovers / game
15.0
50.1
points in paint / game
54.9

Rating Trend

MIN · CHI · 61 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHI 5−3
Feb 5, 2025at MINMIN 127 − 108
Nov 7, 2024at CHIMIN 135 − 119
Mar 31, 2024at MINCHI 109 − 101
Feb 6, 2024at CHICHI 129 − 123
Mar 17, 2023at CHICHI 139 − 131
Dec 18, 2022at MINMIN 150 − 126
Apr 10, 2022at MINCHI 124 − 120
Feb 11, 2022at CHICHI 134 − 122

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 27, 2025vs MIL103 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHI109 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025at ATL126 − 123W
Dec 21, 2025at ATL152 − 150W
Dec 19, 2025at CLE136 − 125W
Dec 17, 2025vs CLE127 − 111W
Dec 14, 2025vs NO104 − 114L
Dec 12, 2025at CHA129 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs GS91 − 123L
Dec 5, 2025vs IND105 − 120L