bayesRatings

Pelicans at Hawks

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final NO 100 – ATL 117
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO26271334100
ATL37282428117
Team box
NO·ATL
38-86
field goals
44-95
8-28
3-pointers
18-47
16-25
free throws
11-17
40
rebounds
49
26
assists
30
19
turnovers
21
54
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zaccharie RisacherATL342580
Zion WilliamsonNO312286
Jordan PooleNO392113
Bryce McGowensNO372023
Jalen JohnsonATL361985
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL341766

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +25
NO +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 25 · NO 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 30%, ATL 70% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
ATL by 7.0
Expected score
ATL 124.7 – 117.7 NO
Expected total
242.3
PelicansThe matchupHawks
+235Our fair odds−235
117.7Expected points124.7
−0.79Power rating−0.15
114.8Points / game118.5
122.8Allowed / game119.9
46.0FG%47.9
33.83P%36.9
43.4Rebounds / game41.7
8−30Season record17−21
2−8Last 102−8
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Jose Alvarado · Saddiq BeyOutCaleb Houstan · Malik Williams
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · ATL chance
Our model fair29.8%70.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+23530%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−23570%————
SpreadATL by 7.0
NONew Orleans Pelicans+7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−7our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.3
Over242.3our total————
Under242.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 7.0 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%
← NO wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more59%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more43%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.3 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.530%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GJordan Poolestarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FKarlo Matkovicstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FMouhamed Gueyestarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·ATL
Jan 6 vs LAL
last game
Jan 5 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; sorenessOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
NOTrey Murphy III · low back; spasmsQuestionable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLMalik Williams · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLTrae Young · right quad; contusionOut
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
NO·ATL
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
114.8
points / game
118.5
122.8
points allowed / game
119.9
8−30
season record
17−21
6−17
home record
6−11
2−13
away record
11−10
L8
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
2−8
46.0
FG%
47.9
33.8
3P%
36.9
43.4
rebounds / game
41.7
24.7
assists / game
31.2
14.6
turnovers / game
15.1
57.9
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

NO · ATL · 70 days
New Orleans PelicansAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 6−3
Nov 22, 2025at NOATL 115 − 98
Dec 2, 2024at ATLATL 124 − 112
Nov 3, 2024at NOATL 126 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at ATLNO 116 − 103
Nov 4, 2023at NOATL 123 − 105
Feb 7, 2023at NONO 116 − 107
Nov 5, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 121
Mar 20, 2022at ATLNO 117 − 112
Oct 27, 2021at NOATL 102 − 99

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W

ATL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L