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Lakers at Pelicans

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final LAL 111 – NO 103
← NBA / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL29222832111
NO25293217103
Team box
LAL·NO
43-85
field goals
40-91
11-31
3-pointers
10-40
14-21
free throws
13-18
44
rebounds
44
30
assists
28
15
turnovers
16
58
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO394253
LeBron JamesLAL333088
Luka DoncicLAL3730210
Deandre AytonLAL3218113
Zion WilliamsonNO331545
Marcus SmartLAL371364

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +11
LAL +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 9 · LAL 11lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 68%, NO 32% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
LAL by 6.8
Expected score
LAL 121.1 – 114.2 NO
Expected total
235.3
LakersThe matchupPelicans
−214Our fair odds+214
121.1Expected points114.2
+0.20Power rating−0.79
117.3Points / game115.2
117.3Allowed / game123.1
50.1FG%46.1
34.43P%34.0
41.1Rebounds / game43.4
22−11Season record8−29
5−5Last 103−7
Adou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Rui HachimuraOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Saddiq Bey · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · NO chance
Our model fair68.1%31.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−21468%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+21432%————
SpreadLAL by 6.8
LALLos Angeles Lakers−6.8our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.3
Over235.3our total————
Under235.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 6.8 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← LAL wins byNO wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more59%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more43%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.3 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·NO
Jan 4 vs MEM
last game
Jan 4 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 6, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; strainOut
LALGabe Vincent · lumbar back; strainDoubtful
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
LAL·NO
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.79
117.3
points / game
115.2
117.3
points allowed / game
123.1
22−11
season record
8−29
10−6
home record
6−16
12−5
away record
2−13
W2
streak
L7
5−5
last 10
3−7
50.1
FG%
46.1
34.4
3P%
34.0
41.1
rebounds / game
43.4
25.0
assists / game
24.6
15.5
turnovers / game
14.6
51.5
points in paint / game
58.0

Rating Trend

LAL · NO · 69 days
Los Angeles LakersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 1−9
Nov 30, 2025at LALLAL 133 − 121
Nov 14, 2025at NOLAL 118 − 104
Apr 4, 2025at LALLAL 124 − 108
Mar 4, 2025at LALLAL 136 − 115
Nov 16, 2024at NOLAL 104 − 99
Apr 14, 2024at NOLAL 124 − 108
Feb 9, 2024at LALLAL 139 − 122
Dec 31, 2023at NONO 129 − 109
Dec 7, 2023at LALLAL 133 − 89
Mar 14, 2023at NOLAL 123 − 108

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 4vs MEM120 − 114W
Jan 2vs MEM128 − 121W
Dec 30, 2025vs DET106 − 128L
Dec 28, 2025vs SAC125 − 101W
Dec 25, 2025vs HOU96 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025at PHX108 − 132L
Dec 20, 2025at LAC88 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025at UTAH143 − 135W
Dec 14, 2025at PHX116 − 114W
Dec 10, 2025vs SA119 − 132L

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak L7
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W