bayesRatings

Pistons at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 30 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final DET 128 – LAL 106
← NBA / Dec 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET36342632128
LAL30352318106
Team box
DET·LAL
48-76
field goals
37-82
11-24
3-pointers
11-39
21-29
free throws
21-31
37
rebounds
33
30
assists
28
20
turnovers
21
74
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3630511
Cade CunninghamDET3327511
Marcus SasserDET241925
LeBron JamesLAL321744
Isaiah StewartDET181520
Jalen DurenDET281482

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +26
DET +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 1 · DET 26lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 46%, LAL 54% · Updated Dec 30, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 0.9
Expected score
LAL 115.4 – 114.5 DET
Expected total
229.8
PistonsThe matchupLakers
+117Our fair odds−117
114.5Expected points115.4
+0.30Power rating+0.23
118.8Points / game117.2
112.9Allowed / game116.9
48.1FG%50.1
34.53P%34.9
46.9Rebounds / game41.2
24−8Season record20−10
7−3Last 105−5
Bobi Klintman · Caris LeVert
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.OutAustin Reaves · Gabe Vincent
Rui Hachimura

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · LAL chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+11746%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−11754%————
SpreadLAL by 0.9
DETDetroit Pistons+0.9our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 0.9 expected
Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more43%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more29%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·LAL
Dec 28, 2025 at LAC
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 30, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCaris LeVert · left knee; sorenessOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
LALGabe Vincent · lumbar back; strainOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
DET·LAL
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
118.8
points / game
117.2
112.9
points allowed / game
116.9
24−8
season record
20−10
13−2
home record
8−5
11−6
away record
12−5
L2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
48.1
FG%
50.1
34.5
3P%
34.9
46.9
rebounds / game
41.2
26.7
assists / game
24.7
15.6
turnovers / game
15.3
58.1
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

DET · LAL · 62 days
Detroit PistonsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAL 6−2
Dec 23, 2024at LALDET 117 − 114
Nov 4, 2024at DETDET 115 − 103
Feb 13, 2024at LALLAL 125 − 111
Nov 29, 2023at DETLAL 133 − 107
Dec 11, 2022at DETLAL 124 − 117
Nov 18, 2022at LALLAL 128 − 121
Nov 28, 2021at LALLAL 110 − 106
Nov 21, 2021at DETLAL 121 − 116

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 28, 2025at LAC99 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L
Dec 23, 2025at SAC136 − 127W
Dec 22, 2025at POR110 − 102W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHA112 − 86W
Dec 18, 2025at DAL114 − 116L
Dec 15, 2025at BOS112 − 105W
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025vs SAC125 − 101W
Dec 25, 2025vs HOU96 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025at PHX108 − 132L
Dec 20, 2025at LAC88 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025at UTAH143 − 135W
Dec 14, 2025at PHX116 − 114W
Dec 10, 2025vs SA119 − 132L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI112 − 108W
Dec 5, 2025at BOS105 − 126L
Dec 4, 2025at TOR123 − 120W