bayesRatings

Pistons at Clippers

NBA · Sunday, Dec 28 · 8:00 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final DET 99 – LAC 112
← NBA / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET2022273099
LAC33273220112
Team box
DET·LAC
34-82
field goals
35-75
7-29
3-pointers
14-34
24-28
free throws
28-29
45
rebounds
35
18
assists
18
13
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
26
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC3955112
James HardenLAC402847
Cade CunninghamDET322759
Jalen DurenDET3118142
Nicolas BatumLAC311241
Jaden IveyDET291133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +26
DET +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 26 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 52%, LAC 48% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 0.2
Expected score
DET 111.8 – 111.7 LAC
Expected total
223.5
PistonsThe matchupClippers
−109Our fair odds+109
111.8Expected points111.7
+0.34Power rating+0.02
119.5Points / game111.5
112.9Allowed / game115.3
48.4FG%47.3
34.93P%36.1
46.9Rebounds / game40.6
24−7Season record9−21
7−3Last 104−6
Bobi Klintman · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith · Wendell Moore Jr.Out (4 each)Bogdan Bogdanovic · Bradley Beal
Chris Paul · Ivica Zubac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · LAC chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−10952%————
LACLA Clippers+10948%————
SpreadDET by 0.2
DETDetroit Pistons−0.2our margin————
LACLA Clippers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.5
Over223.5our total————
Under223.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 0.2 expected
Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%
← DET wins byLAC wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more40%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more27%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.5 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FNicolas Batumstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·LAC
Dec 26, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Dec 26, 2025 at POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 28, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
LA Clippers
LACBogdan Bogdanovic · left hamstring; injury managementOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACChris Paul · not with teamOut
LACIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
LACJohn Collins · n/a; illnessQuestionable
LACCam Christie · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
DET·LAC
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
119.5
points / game
111.5
112.9
points allowed / game
115.3
24−7
season record
9−21
13−2
home record
5−8
11−5
away record
4−13
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.4
FG%
47.3
34.9
3P%
36.1
46.9
rebounds / game
40.6
26.9
assists / game
23.7
15.6
turnovers / game
15.9
58.4
points in paint / game
46.1

Rating Trend

DET · LAC · 60 days
Detroit PistonsLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAC 7−1
Mar 5, 2025at LACLAC 123 − 115
Feb 24, 2025at DETDET 106 − 97
Feb 10, 2024at LACLAC 112 − 106
Feb 2, 2024at DETLAC 136 − 125
Dec 26, 2022at DETLAC 142 − 131
Nov 17, 2022at LACLAC 96 − 91
Mar 13, 2022at DETLAC 106 − 102
Nov 26, 2021at LACLAC 107 − 96

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L
Dec 23, 2025at SAC136 − 127W
Dec 22, 2025at POR110 − 102W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHA112 − 86W
Dec 18, 2025at DAL114 − 116L
Dec 15, 2025at BOS112 − 105W
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W
Dec 3, 2025at MIL109 − 113L

LAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 26, 2025at POR119 − 103W
Dec 23, 2025vs HOU128 − 108W
Dec 20, 2025vs LAL103 − 88W
Dec 18, 2025at OKC101 − 122L
Dec 15, 2025vs MEM103 − 121L
Dec 11, 2025at HOU113 − 115L
Dec 6, 2025at MIN106 − 109L
Dec 5, 2025at MEM98 − 107L
Dec 3, 2025at ATL115 − 92W
Dec 1, 2025at MIA123 − 140L