bayesRatings

Pistons at Kings

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final DET 136 – SAC 127
← NBA / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET37384021136
SAC24343930127
Team box
DET·SAC
51-95
field goals
42-92
14-32
3-pointers
11-33
20-28
free throws
32-37
42
rebounds
42
38
assists
26
15
turnovers
13
70
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
DeMar DeRozanSAC423738
Russell WestbrookSAC382764
Tobias HarrisDET292444
Cade CunninghamDET3923714
Jalen DurenDET3223134
Ausar ThompsonDET361962

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +24
DET +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 3 · DET 24lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 61%, SAC 39% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 4.7
Expected score
DET 118.4 – 113.8 SAC
Expected total
232.2
PistonsThe matchupKings
−155Our fair odds+155
118.4Expected points113.8
+0.34Power rating−0.34
118.6Points / game111.5
111.8Allowed / game122.0
48.0FG%46.3
34.13P%34.7
47.3Rebounds / game40.8
23−6Season record7−22
8−2Last 102−8
Bobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.Out (5 each)Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Drew Eubanks · Isaiah Stevens
Zach LaVine

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · SAC chance
Our model fair60.8%39.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−15561%————
SACSacramento Kings+15539%————
SpreadDET by 4.7
DETDetroit Pistons−4.7our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.7 expected
Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%
← DET wins bySAC wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more53%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more38%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·SAC
Dec 22, 2025 at POR
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 23, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETCaris LeVert · bilateral knee; sorenessQuestionable
DETRonald Holland II · left knee; sprainQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; avulsion fractureOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACZach LaVine · left ankle; sprainOut
SACDevin Carter · left ankle; sprainDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
DET·SAC
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
118.6
points / game
111.5
111.8
points allowed / game
122.0
23−6
season record
7−22
13−2
home record
4−9
10−4
away record
3−13
W2
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
2−8
48.0
FG%
46.3
34.1
3P%
34.7
47.3
rebounds / game
40.8
26.2
assists / game
25.4
15.6
turnovers / game
14.3
58.1
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

DET · SAC · 56 days
Detroit PistonsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SAC 5−3
Apr 7, 2025at DETSAC 127 − 117
Dec 26, 2024at SACDET 114 − 113
Feb 7, 2024at SACDET 133 − 120
Jan 9, 2024at DETSAC 131 − 110
Dec 16, 2022at DETSAC 122 − 113
Nov 20, 2022at SACSAC 137 − 129
Jan 19, 2022at SACDET 133 − 131
Nov 15, 2021at DETSAC 129 − 107

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Dec 22, 2025at POR110 − 102W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHA112 − 86W
Dec 18, 2025at DAL114 − 116L
Dec 15, 2025at BOS112 − 105W
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W
Dec 5, 2025vs POR122 − 116W
Dec 3, 2025at MIL109 − 113L
Dec 1, 2025vs ATL99 − 98W
Nov 29, 2025at MIA138 − 135W

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Dec 20, 2025vs POR93 − 98L
Dec 18, 2025at POR133 − 134L
Dec 14, 2025at MIN103 − 117L
Dec 11, 2025vs DEN105 − 136L
Dec 8, 2025at IND105 − 116L
Dec 6, 2025at MIA127 − 111W
Dec 3, 2025at HOU95 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs MEM107 − 115L
Nov 28, 2025at UTAH119 − 128L