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Grizzlies at Lakers

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 8:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final MEM 114 – LAL 120
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM34312227114
LAL26282937120
Team box
MEM·LAL
42-100
field goals
38-80
10-41
3-pointers
11-41
20-22
free throws
33-41
47
rebounds
45
29
assists
30
9
turnovers
11
58
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL393698
LeBron JamesLAL3726710
Jake LaRaviaLAL352654
Jaylen WellsMEM252312
Cedric CowardMEM131681
Deandre AytonLAL341581

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +16
MEM +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 9 · MEM 16lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 40%, LAL 60% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
LAL by 2.9
Expected score
LAL 117.5 – 114.6 MEM
Expected total
232.2
GrizzliesThe matchupLakers
+148Our fair odds−148
114.6Expected points117.5
+0.06Power rating+0.23
116.0Points / game117.2
116.9Allowed / game117.4
45.8FG%50.2
34.93P%34.7
45.8Rebounds / game41.0
15−19Season record21−11
4−6Last 105−5
Brandon Clarke · Jahmai Mashack
John Konchar · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty JeromeOutAdou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Gabe Vincent · Rui Hachimura

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · LAL chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+14840%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−14860%————
SpreadLAL by 2.9
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+2.9our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 2.9 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%
← MEM wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more48%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more33%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·LAL
Jan 2 at LAL
last game
Jan 2 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · reaction right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stressOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; contusionQuestionable
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayQuestionable
MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper · g league - two-wayQuestionable
and 1 more
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
LALGabe Vincent · lumbar back; strainOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
MEM·LAL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
116.0
points / game
117.2
116.9
points allowed / game
117.4
15−19
season record
21−11
7−9
home record
9−6
8−10
away record
12−5
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
45.8
FG%
50.2
34.9
3P%
34.7
45.8
rebounds / game
41.0
29.1
assists / game
24.8
15.2
turnovers / game
15.7
50.0
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

MEM · LAL · 67 days
Memphis GrizzliesLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 8−2
Jan 2at LALLAL 128 − 121
Oct 31, 2025at MEMLAL 117 − 112
Mar 29, 2025at MEMLAL 134 − 127
Dec 15, 2024at LALLAL 116 − 110
Nov 13, 2024at LALLAL 128 − 123
Nov 6, 2024at MEMMEM 131 − 114
Apr 12, 2024at MEMLAL 123 − 120
Mar 27, 2024at MEMLAL 136 − 124
Jan 5, 2024at LALMEM 127 − 113
Nov 14, 2023at LALLAL 134 − 107

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025vs UTAH126 − 130L

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 2vs MEM128 − 121W
Dec 30, 2025vs DET106 − 128L
Dec 28, 2025vs SAC125 − 101W
Dec 25, 2025vs HOU96 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025at PHX108 − 132L
Dec 20, 2025at LAC88 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025at UTAH143 − 135W
Dec 14, 2025at PHX116 − 114W
Dec 10, 2025vs SA119 − 132L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI112 − 108W