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Grizzlies at Wizards

NBA · Sunday, Dec 28 · 5:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final MEM 112 – WSH 116
← NBA / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM27322924112
WSH25352432116
Team box
MEM·WSH
43-103
field goals
42-99
9-32
3-pointers
8-33
17-21
free throws
24-25
43
rebounds
54
27
assists
26
16
turnovers
19
62
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM353181
Ja MorantMEM272107
Alex SarrWSH262091
CJ McCollumWSH331645
Santi AldamaMEM3514103
Bilal CoulibalyWSH291482

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +10
MEM +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 9 · MEM 10lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 76%, WSH 24% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 11.5
Expected score
MEM 124.1 – 112.6 WSH
Expected total
236.7
GrizzliesThe matchupWizards
−316Our fair odds+316
124.1Expected points112.6
+0.05Power rating−1.35
115.4Points / game113.5
115.8Allowed / game125.8
45.5FG%46.3
35.13P%35.8
46.1Rebounds / game44.0
15−16Season record6−23
6−4Last 103−7
Brandon Clarke · Jahmai Mashack
John Konchar · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty JeromeOutCam Whitmore · Corey Kispert
Kyshawn George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair75.9%24.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−31676%————
WSHWashington Wizards+31624%————
SpreadMEM by 11.5
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−11.5our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+11.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.7
Over236.7our total————
Under236.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 11.5 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 4%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 4%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%
← MEM wins byWSH wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more72%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more56%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.7 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·WSH
Dec 26, 2025 vs MIL
last game
Dec 26, 2025 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 28, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMJock Landale · right calf; sorenessDoubtful
Washington Wizards
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHCorey Kispert · left hamstring; strainOut
WSHKyshawn George · left hip flexor; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
MEM·WSH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−1.35
115.4
points / game
113.5
115.8
points allowed / game
125.8
15−16
season record
6−23
7−8
home record
3−10
8−8
away record
3−13
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
45.5
FG%
46.3
35.1
3P%
35.8
46.1
rebounds / game
44.0
29.1
assists / game
25.5
15.1
turnovers / game
15.3
48.6
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

MEM · WSH · 60 days
Memphis GrizzliesWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 4−5
Dec 20, 2025at MEMWSH 130 − 122
Dec 8, 2024at WSHMEM 140 − 112
Nov 8, 2024at MEMMEM 128 − 104
Mar 12, 2024at MEMMEM 109 − 97
Oct 28, 2023at WSHWSH 113 − 106
Nov 13, 2022at WSHWSH 102 − 92
Nov 6, 2022at MEMMEM 103 − 97
Jan 29, 2022at MEMMEM 115 − 95
Nov 5, 2021at WSHWSH 115 − 87

MEM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025vs UTAH126 − 130L
Dec 7, 2025vs POR119 − 96W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAC107 − 98W
Dec 2, 2025at SA119 − 126L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 26, 2025vs TOR138 − 117W
Dec 23, 2025at CHA109 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs SA113 − 124L
Dec 20, 2025at MEM130 − 122W
Dec 18, 2025at SA94 − 119L
Dec 14, 2025at IND108 − 89W
Dec 12, 2025vs CLE126 − 130L
Dec 6, 2025vs ATL116 − 131L
Dec 4, 2025vs BOS101 − 146L
Dec 2, 2025at PHI102 − 121L