bayesRatings

76ers at Grizzlies

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 30 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final PHI 139 – MEM 136
← NBA / Dec 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
PHI3438312511139
MEM403228288136
Team box
PHI·MEM
51-111
field goals
51-92
15-42
3-pointers
11-29
22-27
free throws
23-26
41
rebounds
51
33
assists
28
9
turnovers
20
60
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ja MorantMEM344023
Joel EmbiidPHI3834108
Tyrese MaxeyPHI4334412
Cedric CowardMEM3728164
VJ EdgecombePHI412564
Paul GeorgePHI391733

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +10
PHI +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: MEM 10 · PHI 7lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 36%, MEM 64% · Updated Dec 30, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 4.8
Expected score
MEM 117.9 – 113.0 PHI
Expected total
230.9
76ersThe matchupGrizzlies
+181Our fair odds−181
113.0Expected points117.9
−0.31Power rating+0.06
115.7Points / game115.2
115.6Allowed / game115.8
44.6FG%45.4
35.83P%34.9
44.9Rebounds / game46.0
16−14Season record15−17
5−5Last 106−4
Johni Broome · Kelly Oubre Jr.
MarJon Beauchamp · Trendon WatfordOutBrandon Clarke · Jahmai Mashack
John Konchar · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MEM chance
Our model fair35.6%64.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+18136%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−18164%————
SpreadMEM by 4.8
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+4.8our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−4.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.9
Over230.9our total————
Under230.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 4.8 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%
← PHI wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more53%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more38%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.9 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.531%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CChristian Kolokostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MEM
Dec 28, 2025 at OKC
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 30, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right ankle; sprain; illnessQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right hamstring; sorenessOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMJock Landale · right calf; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
PHI·MEM
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
115.7
points / game
115.2
115.6
points allowed / game
115.8
16−14
season record
15−17
9−8
home record
7−8
7−6
away record
8−9
L3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
44.6
FG%
45.4
35.8
3P%
34.9
44.9
rebounds / game
46.0
24.7
assists / game
29.1
14.4
turnovers / game
15.1
47.4
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

PHI · MEM · 62 days
Philadelphia 76ersMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MEM 5−3
Nov 20, 2024at MEMMEM 117 − 111
Nov 2, 2024at PHIMEM 124 − 107
Apr 6, 2024at MEMPHI 116 − 96
Mar 6, 2024at PHIMEM 115 − 109
Feb 23, 2023at PHIPHI 110 − 105
Dec 2, 2022at MEMMEM 117 − 109
Jan 31, 2022at PHIPHI 122 − 119
Dec 13, 2021at MEMMEM 126 − 91

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 28, 2025at OKC104 − 129L
Dec 26, 2025at CHI102 − 109L
Dec 23, 2025vs BKN106 − 114L
Dec 20, 2025vs DAL121 − 114W
Dec 19, 2025at NY116 − 107W
Dec 14, 2025at ATL117 − 120L
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs GS99 − 98W

MEM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025vs UTAH126 − 130L
Dec 7, 2025vs POR119 − 96W
Dec 5, 2025vs LAC107 − 98W