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Pelicans at Heat

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 5:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final NO 106 – MIA 125
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO39231529106
MIA43272332125
Team box
NO·MIA
42-90
field goals
47-101
16-40
3-pointers
18-44
6-8
free throws
13-18
42
rebounds
43
28
assists
30
26
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Norman PowellMIA293433
Trey Murphy IIINO382785
Jeremiah FearsNO262132
Nikola JovicMIA261963
Kel'el WareMIA2516121
Pelle LarssonMIA261636

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +21
NO +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 21 · NO 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 27%, MIA 73% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
MIA by 8.8
Expected score
MIA 120.5 – 111.7 NO
Expected total
232.2
PelicansThe matchupHeat
+272Our fair odds−272
111.7Expected points120.5
−0.72Power rating+0.06
115.4Points / game120.7
123.1Allowed / game117.6
46.1FG%47.2
33.93P%36.6
43.4Rebounds / game45.6
8−28Season record19−16
4−6Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Saddiq BeyOutJahmir Young · Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Keshad Johnson · Terry Rozier
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · MIA chance
Our model fair26.9%73.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+27227%————
MIAMiami Heat−27273%————
SpreadMIA by 8.8
NONew Orleans Pelicans+8.8our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−8.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 8.8 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 2%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%
← NO wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more63%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more48%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
FKarlo Matkovicstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·MIA
Jan 2 vs POR
last game
Jan 3 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainOut
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · right ankle; sprainOut
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
NO·MIA
−0.72
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
115.4
points / game
120.7
123.1
points allowed / game
117.6
8−28
season record
19−16
6−16
home record
12−6
2−12
away record
7−10
L6
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
46.1
FG%
47.2
33.9
3P%
36.6
43.4
rebounds / game
45.6
24.6
assists / game
28.7
14.3
turnovers / game
14.2
58.3
points in paint / game
55.4

Rating Trend

NO · MIA · 67 days
New Orleans PelicansMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 7−1
Apr 11, 2025at NOMIA 153 − 104
Jan 1, 2025at MIAMIA 119 − 108
Mar 22, 2024at MIANO 111 − 88
Feb 23, 2024at NOMIA 106 − 95
Jan 22, 2023at MIAMIA 100 − 96
Jan 18, 2023at NOMIA 124 − 98
Feb 10, 2022at NOMIA 112 − 97
Nov 17, 2021at MIAMIA 113 − 98

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L