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Nuggets at Heat

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final DEN 123 – MIA 147
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN29343624123
MIA41224737147
Team box
DEN·MIA
47-89
field goals
53-99
11-31
3-pointers
22-46
18-22
free throws
19-23
36
rebounds
46
29
assists
40
10
turnovers
10
58
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Norman PowellMIA282514
Nikola JovicMIA262245
Nikola JokicDEN192158
Jamal MurrayDEN3520611
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA2820311
Andrew WigginsMIA311956

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +27
DEN +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 27 · DEN 2lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 60%, MIA 40% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 3.1
Expected score
DEN 118.4 – 115.3 MIA
Expected total
233.7
NuggetsThe matchupHeat
−152Our fair odds+152
118.4Expected points115.3
+0.66Power rating+0.00
125.8Points / game120.2
117.5Allowed / game117.4
51.5FG%47.2
40.43P%36.2
44.3Rebounds / game45.8
22−9Season record17−15
7−3Last 103−7
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Tamar BatesOut (4 each)Jahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−15260%————
MIAMiami Heat+15240%————
SpreadDEN by 3.1
DENDenver Nuggets−3.1our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMIA wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more48%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more34%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GTim Hardaway Jr.started
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MIA
Dec 27, 2025 at ORL
last game
Dec 27, 2025 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 28, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; injury managementOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIABam Adebayo · lower back; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
DEN·MIA
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
125.8
points / game
120.2
117.5
points allowed / game
117.4
22−9
season record
17−15
10−5
home record
11−5
12−4
away record
6−10
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
3−7
51.5
FG%
47.2
40.4
3P%
36.2
44.3
rebounds / game
45.8
29.7
assists / game
28.5
13.5
turnovers / game
14.0
52.6
points in paint / game
55.7

Rating Trend

DEN · MIA · 61 days
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 1−9
Nov 5, 2025at DENDEN 122 − 112
Jan 17, 2025at MIADEN 133 − 113
Nov 8, 2024at DENDEN 135 − 122
Mar 13, 2024at MIADEN 100 − 88
Feb 29, 2024at DENDEN 103 − 97
Jun 12, 2023at DENDEN 94 − 89post
Jun 9, 2023at MIADEN 108 − 95post
Jun 7, 2023at MIADEN 109 − 94post
Jun 4, 2023at DENMIA 111 − 108post
Jun 1, 2023at DENDEN 104 − 93post

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L