bayesRatings

Nuggets at Magic

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final DEN 126 – ORL 127
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN31313133126
ORL23253643127
Team box
DEN·ORL
44-86
field goals
46-89
11-29
3-pointers
10-29
27-30
free throws
25-37
49
rebounds
35
27
assists
32
16
turnovers
6
62
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony BlackORL303865
Nikola JokicDEN38342112
Jamal MurrayDEN372453
Desmond BaneORL382416
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN332042
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL381874

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +17
DEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 7 · DEN 17lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 58%, ORL 42% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 1.7
Expected score
DEN 114.1 – 112.4 ORL
Expected total
226.5
NuggetsThe matchupMagic
−138Our fair odds+138
114.1Expected points112.4
+0.66Power rating+0.10
125.8Points / game116.8
117.2Allowed / game115.0
51.5FG%46.6
40.43P%33.7
44.1Rebounds / game44.9
22−8Season record17−14
8−2Last 104−6
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Tamar BatesOutColin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Moritz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · ORL chance
Our model fair58.0%42.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−13858%————
ORLOrlando Magic+13842%————
SpreadDEN by 1.7
DENDenver Nuggets−1.7our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 1.7 expected
Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%
← DEN wins byORL wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more44%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more30%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GTim Hardaway Jr.started
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Orlando Magic
GTyus Jonesstarted
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·ORL
Dec 25, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Dec 26, 2025 vs CHA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; injury managementOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprainOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLJalen Suggs · left hip; contusionDoubtful
ORLGoga Bitadze · left knee; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
DEN·ORL
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
125.8
points / game
116.8
117.2
points allowed / game
115.0
22−8
season record
17−14
10−5
home record
10−6
12−3
away record
7−8
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
51.5
FG%
46.6
40.4
3P%
33.7
44.1
rebounds / game
44.9
29.8
assists / game
25.8
13.4
turnovers / game
14.3
52.3
points in paint / game
53.9

Rating Trend

DEN · ORL · 59 days
Denver NuggetsOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ORL 4−5
Dec 18, 2025at DENDEN 126 − 115
Feb 6, 2025at DENDEN 112 − 90
Jan 19, 2025at ORLDEN 113 − 100
Jan 5, 2024at DENORL 122 − 120
Nov 22, 2023at ORLORL 124 − 119
Feb 9, 2023at ORLORL 115 − 104
Jan 15, 2023at DENDEN 119 − 116
Feb 14, 2022at DENDEN 121 − 111
Dec 1, 2021at ORLORL 108 − 103

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W
Dec 5, 2025at ATL134 − 133W
Dec 3, 2025at IND135 − 120W

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 26, 2025vs CHA105 − 120L
Dec 23, 2025at POR110 − 106W
Dec 22, 2025at GS97 − 120L
Dec 20, 2025at UTAH128 − 127W
Dec 18, 2025at DEN115 − 126L
Dec 13, 2025vs NY120 − 132L
Dec 9, 2025vs MIA117 − 108W
Dec 7, 2025at NY100 − 106L
Dec 5, 2025vs MIA106 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs SA112 − 114L