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Pacers at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final IND 116 – MIA 142
← NBA / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND28323422116
MIA29303944142
Team box
IND·MIA
46-93
field goals
55-107
12-38
3-pointers
12-31
12-16
free throws
20-21
45
rebounds
49
30
assists
33
26
turnovers
11
56
points in paint
78
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND343375
Andrew WigginsMIA312863
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA292863
Bennedict MathurinIND352560
Norman PowellMIA282352
Nikola JovicMIA251977

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +26
IND +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 26 · IND 4lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 42%, MIA 58% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 3.1
Expected score
MIA 115.7 – 112.6 IND
Expected total
228.3
PacersThe matchupHeat
+139Our fair odds−139
112.6Expected points115.7
−0.10Power rating+0.00
109.6Points / game119.5
118.4Allowed / game117.4
43.3FG%47.0
32.53P%36.1
43.5Rebounds / game45.6
6−25Season record16−15
2−8Last 102−8
Ben Sheppard · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · T.J. McConnell
Tyrese HaliburtonOut (5 each)Bam Adebayo · Jahmir Young
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIA chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+13942%————
MIAMiami Heat−13958%————
SpreadMIA by 3.1
INDIndiana Pacers+3.1our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.3
Over228.3our total————
Under228.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.1 expected
Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more49%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more34%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.3 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIA
Dec 26, 2025 vs BOS
last game
Dec 26, 2025 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 27, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBen Sheppard · left calf; strainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee; mcl sprainQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIABam Adebayo · lower back; sorenessOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKel'el Ware · right quadriceps; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
IND·MIA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
109.6
points / game
119.5
118.4
points allowed / game
117.4
6−25
season record
16−15
5−12
home record
10−5
1−13
away record
6−10
L7
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
2−8
43.3
FG%
47.0
32.5
3P%
36.1
43.5
rebounds / game
45.6
23.5
assists / game
28.4
13.8
turnovers / game
14.1
44.3
points in paint / game
55.0

Rating Trend

IND · MIA · 59 days
Indiana PacersMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Feb 28, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 120
Jan 2, 2025at MIAIND 128 − 115
Nov 17, 2024at INDIND 119 − 110
Nov 15, 2024at INDMIA 124 − 111
Apr 7, 2024at INDIND 117 − 115
Dec 2, 2023at MIAIND 144 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at MIAMIA 142 − 132
Feb 8, 2023at MIAMIA 116 − 111
Dec 23, 2022at MIAIND 111 − 108
Dec 12, 2022at INDMIA 87 − 82

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L
Dec 12, 2025at PHI105 − 115L
Dec 8, 2025vs SAC116 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs DEN120 − 135L

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L
Dec 5, 2025at ORL105 − 106L
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L