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Heat at Pistons

NBA · Thursday, Jan 1 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final MIA 118 – DET 112
← NBA / Jan 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA33303124118
DET26282731112
Team box
MIA·DET
43-99
field goals
38-80
14-39
3-pointers
9-26
18-20
free throws
27-31
49
rebounds
40
25
assists
25
20
turnovers
21
52
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Norman PowellMIA353622
Cade CunninghamDET4031811
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA301935
Marcus SasserDET241842
Andrew WigginsMIA321781
Bam AdebayoMIA3315140

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +22
MIA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 5 · MIA 22lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 39%, DET 61% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
DET by 4.2
Expected score
DET 116.5 – 112.4 MIA
Expected total
228.9
HeatThe matchupPistons
+158Our fair odds−158
112.4Expected points116.5
+0.06Power rating+0.30
121.0Points / game119.1
117.5Allowed / game112.7
47.4FG%48.6
36.53P%34.9
45.8Rebounds / game46.6
18−15Season record25−8
4−6Last 107−3
Jahmir Young · Pelle Larsson
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOut (5 each)Bobi Klintman · Caris LeVert
Isaac Jones · Tobias Harris
Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · DET chance
Our model fair38.8%61.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+15839%————
DETDetroit Pistons−15861%————
SpreadDET by 4.2
MIAMiami Heat+4.2our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.9
Over228.9our total————
Under228.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.2 expected
Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%
← MIA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more52%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more36%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.9 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.531%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·DET
Dec 29, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Dec 30, 2025 at LAL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · inflammation g league - two-wayOut
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCaris LeVert · left knee; inflammationOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTobias Harris · left hip; sprainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
MIA·DET
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
121.0
points / game
119.1
117.5
points allowed / game
112.7
18−15
season record
25−8
12−5
home record
13−2
6−10
away record
12−6
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
48.6
36.5
3P%
34.9
45.8
rebounds / game
46.6
28.8
assists / game
26.8
13.9
turnovers / game
15.7
55.7
points in paint / game
58.5

Rating Trend

MIA · DET · 64 days
Miami HeatDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Nov 29, 2025at MIADET 138 − 135
Mar 19, 2025at MIADET 116 − 113
Dec 16, 2024at DETDET 125 − 124
Nov 12, 2024at DETDET 123 − 121
Oct 28, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 98
Mar 17, 2024at DETMIA 104 − 101
Mar 15, 2024at DETMIA 108 − 95
Mar 5, 2024at MIAMIA 118 − 110
Oct 25, 2023at MIAMIA 103 − 102
Apr 4, 2023at DETMIA 118 − 105

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L
Dec 6, 2025vs SAC111 − 127L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 30, 2025at LAL128 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025at LAC99 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L
Dec 23, 2025at SAC136 − 127W
Dec 22, 2025at POR110 − 102W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHA112 − 86W
Dec 18, 2025at DAL114 − 116L
Dec 15, 2025at BOS112 − 105W
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W
Dec 6, 2025vs MIL124 − 112W